All good things must come to an end, and my player prop hot streak ended with an 0-2 record on Monday. So I'm, back with two hopeful winners for my MLB player prop pick today.
I'm backing two hot players with soft matchups, eyeing Freddie Freeman and Bailey Ober. Here are my two MLB player props for Tuesday:
MLB Prop Pick Today: Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases (-115)
Dodgers vs Phillies Odds - Game Time: 6:41 pm ET
I've made a habit of betting against Zack Wheeler lately. It may not seem like the smartest move (given that Wheeler is the NL Cy Young favorite at +135), but I just keep seeing reasons to do so.
Tonight, it's because Freeman owns the Phillies ace, hitting .412 off Wheeler in 51 career at-bats. The Dodgers slugger just sees Wheeler well, clearly, as he has 15 walks to 11 strikeouts against the Philly righty, as well.
Freeman is also hitting .301 on the season and has 11 hits in his last 10 games. He's also hit this OVER 1.5 total base mark in five of his last 10 contests, so this -115 line is pretty fair off recent trends alone. Add in the success against Wheeler, and that's where the value comes from.
MLB Prop Pick Today: Bailey Over Over 6.5 Ks (+118)
Twins vs White Sox Odds - Game Time: 8:11 pm ET
Ober is on quite the hot streak. As I broke down in my pick of the Twins' runline over Chicago, the Minnesota SP has been essentially flawless over his last four starts. Ober hasn't let up more than two ER in that run and has struck out at least eight batters in each outing. Now, he gets an attainable OVER 6.5 strikeout line against the worst team in baseball? Easy bet.
The White Sox are the second-worst offense in baseball by team OPS and they strike out plenty, too. Chicago's lineup averages 8.62 strikeouts per contest, the 10th-most in MLB.
It doesn't hurt that Ober's also been very effective against current White Sox hitters in the past (who hasn't, though). Current Chicago bats have a career .247 average and .652 OPS against Ober in 97 at-bats. He's struck out 27 batters to just two walks in that sample, too.
If you really wanna get juicy with it, you can also toss bets on Ober's strikeout alt lines at OVER 7.5 (+240) and OVER 8.5 (+470).
