It's Tuesday, which means it's another fine day for an MLB same-game parlay.
This time around, we're headed to Philadelphia, where I'm breaking down the Blue Jays vs Phillies game starting at 6:40 p.m.
Here's my MLB same-game parlay for the Jays vs Phillies contest:
Blue Jays vs Phillies Same-Game Parlay: May 7
The Game: Blue Jays vs Phillies - 6:40 p.m. ET
| Bet | Odds |
|---|---|
| Jose Berrios OVER 2.5 Earned Runs | -130 |
| Bryson Stott OVER 0.5 Total Bases | -180 |
| UNDER 8.5 Runs | -140 |
| Overall | +600 |
Same-Game Parlay Pick No. 1: Berrios OVER 2.5 earned runs (-130)
While Jose Berrios remains a long shot in the AL Cy Young conversation, the tune of his success has changed the last few times out. In the early goings, the right-hander's stuff was sharp and he wheeled through games.
Over his last two starts (both against the Royals), Berrios has pitched 12 innings, allowing four runs, on eight hits along with four walks, two homers, and only four strikeouts. The low Ks are key here. It tells me Berrios' breaking pitchers aren't missing many bats and the ball is being put in play. But even when it's not (walks and HRs), clubs are finding success. Berrios' 5.89 FIP over his last two starts suggests he's not as locked in as it seems.
Now Berrios travels to Philadelphia, where he faces a Phillies squad with a .852 OPS vs right-handers over the last two weeks, the second-highest mark in baseball during that span.
Same-Game Parlay Pick No. 2: Stott OVER 0.5 Total Bases (-180)
I'm backing Stott Tuesday for a few reasons, starting with his track record vs Berrios. The Phillies infielder is 2-for-3 lifetime vs Berrios with a solo homer, and he has some batter-vs-pitcher advantages as a left-hander.
Berrios features a healthy sinker + four-seamer arsenal, and he'll throw both to left-handers. Thankfully, Stott covers those heaters well. He has two homers of his three homers on fastballs this season and is slugging .545 vs the sinker and .417 vs the four-seamer. Berrios must give him fastballs at some point, and Stott will be ready.
Stott has an edge beyond the specific pitch mix, too. The 0.5 total bases line is low, so we'll take advantage. Stott has cashed the OVER 0.5 total bases at a 56% clip this year and in four of his last five contests. He's got some momentum, and all he needs is a lousy single Tuesday.
Same-Game Parlay Pick No. 3: UNDER 8.5 Runs (-140)
The Phillies are raking lately, and the Blue Jays are not. Philadelphia has won six games in a row, while Toronto has lost seven of its last 10. Vibes are very different in each clubhouse.
Philly has found its success off the back of great hitting. The Jays often get good outings from their starters but never deliver the clutch hits they need. I smell a low-scoring game Tuesday, starting with a modest outing from Berrios (three or four earned runs) and a shutout from Phillies starter Cristopher Sanchez. Not a single Blue Jays hitter has seen Sanchez before, which doesn't bode well for their chances.
New pitcher + struggling offense = a low total. I like the UNDER 8.5 runs for our final leg in the same-game parlay.
