Celtics vs Heat Prediction & Picks: Miami Poised To Take 2-Game Series Lead

The Miami Heat (62-32 SU, 54-39-1 ATS) will look to take a two-game lead in the Eastern Conference final when they welcome the Boston Celtics (59-35, 51-41-2) to FTX Arena on Thursday. Can Boston equal the series or will Miami remain unbeaten at home in the postseason? Find out in our Celtics vs Heat prediction.

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Celtics vs Heat Odds & Analysis

Sportsbook Odds 

The Heat opened as a 5-point home favorite for Game 2 with the total set at 205.5 points. The UNDER is 9-3 in Miami’s last 12 games while the OVER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings between the teams. Miami is 10-0 in its last 10 home contests, making the hosts look like an easy pick for your Celtics vs Heat prediction.
 
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Celtics Drop Game 1 Without Smart, Horford

Boston put forth a decent performance in Game 1, all things considered, falling 118-107 to Miami. The Celtics were without two key players in Marcus Smart and Al Horford, but actually managed to build an eight-point lead going into halftime. Jimmy Butler went into gamebreaker mode in the second half to take the game away from the Celtics, but the visitors will be happy with how they competed.

Jayson Tatum scored 29 points to lead Boston while Jaylen Brown had a double-double with 24 points and 10 rebounds. The duo continues to lead the way for the Celtics in the postseason, averaging 28.3 and 22.3 points, respectively. 

Smart (foot) is listed as probable while Horford (COVID-19 protocols) is unlikely to play in Game 2.

Third-Quarter Rally Helps Heat Win Game 1

It seems to be a common trend in these playoffs but Game 1 was the Jimmy Butler show once again. Miami’s main man dropped 41 points to lead his Heat to victory with a second-half comeback. Butler scored 27 points after the break and helped the Heat go on a 22-2 run right after halftime to take a lead that they would not relinquish.

Butler, who is averaging nearly 30 points per game in the playoffs, got plenty of help from his teammates as four others finished in double digits, including Tyler Herro, who had 18 points in just 27 minutes on the court. The victory marked Miami’s third-highest scoring performance of the postseason and was just two points shy of the team’s best – a 120-85 win in Game 5 of their series against the Philadelphia 76ers. 

Kyle Lowry (hamstring) is out while Max Strus (hamstring) and Gabe Vincent (hamstring) are questionable.

Celtics vs Heat Pick & Insights

Celtics: Keys To Cover

Boston missed Smart and Horford badly in Game 1, especially on the defensive side. With Smart likely to return for Game 2, the Celtics should be able to limit Miami – and Butler in particular – a bit better than they did in the series opener. If the Celtics can get back to their strong defensive roots, this should be a close contest.

Heat: Keys To Cover

Miami has been heating up offensively, averaging 112.4 points per game over its last five victories. That surge has been led by Butler, who is scoring 33.8 points per contest over that span, including two performances of 40 or more points. If Butler can stay in rhythm while getting some help like he did in Game 1, the Heat will likely go up 2-0.

NBA Computer Pick: Celtics +3.5

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