Basketball is back! The NBA bubble in Orlando, Florida, doesn’t look to be popping any time soon but the betting trends emerging from the Sunshine State have been either profitable or downright cruel to bettors’ bankrolls.
Some sharp bettors have been able to sniff out the profitable angles on the NBA restart while others have taken a massive hit banking on betting trends from the season prior to its suspension.
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As always at Odds Shark, we’ve identified the key trends and observations that have been prominent in the bubble thus far. After 170 games, there are a few that stand out like a sore thumb.
We will be updating this page with new data throughout the playoffs all the way to the buzzer of the final game for the NBA championship so be sure to check back daily.
Joe Osborne has also kept track of all the NBA first-half and first-quarter betting results from the bubble and you can find those updated records in his betting report.
NBA Bubble Betting Records – As of Oct. 7
| Favorites | Fave ATS Records | Totals |
|---|---|---|
| 106-64 SU (62.4%) | 84-84-2 ATS (50%) | 83-84-3 O/U (49.7%) |
As you can see, favorites have been winning their games outright at an impressive clip, though it’s a 50/50 split when it comes to the spread. When the bubble first started, the dogs held their own in Orlando and made a lot of bettors some coin in the regular-season stage.
Teams like the Nets, Blazers, Spurs and Suns were also especially kind to moneyline bettors in the regular-season games and came through in the clutch against tough teams by winning outright (team betting records are below).
For totals, sportsbooks have had to adjust their numbers on the fly with the OVER hitting at 49.7 percent. Of note, though, there have been 39 games with closing totals of 230 or more and the O/U record from those games is 16-23 (41 percent). Additionally, there have been three games with totals that closed above 240 and those games went 1-2 O/U.
NBA Betting Records - Last Seven Days
As a means to help you narrow down betting records for trends in the NBA over the last week, here are the bubble betting records for the last seven days:
| Favorites | Fave ATS Records | Totals |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 SU (75%) | 1-3 ATS (25%) | 1-3 O/U (25%) |
NBA Playoff Bubble Betting Records – As of Oct. 7
| Favorites | Fave ATS Records | Totals |
|---|---|---|
| 53-29 SU (64.6%) | 41-40-1 ATS (50.6%) | 36-45-1 O/U (44.4%) |
Favorites have been taking care of business in the NBA postseason on the moneyline but have been vulnerable on the spread, winning outright 64.6 percent of the time but only covering at 50.6 percent. UNDERs continue to be a profitable endeavor at 55.6 percent in the postseason.
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NBA Team Bubble Betting Records - As of Oct. 7
If you had looked only at their early bubble performance and not at overall records, you might have had a hard time distinguishing which teams were legitimate contenders and which ones were pretenders in the chase for the Larry O’Brien Trophy.
We have the betting records as of October 7 for all 22 teams that have played in the Orlando bubble. Odds Shark has also separated the playoff betting records for the teams that remain in contention for the NBA championship:
| Team | SU Record | ATS Record | O/U Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Suns | 8-0 | 8-0 (13.13) | 5-3 (231.38) |
| Raptors | 14-5 | 11-8 (4.26) | 5-13-1 (215.74) |
| Lakers | 18-9 | 11-15-1 (2.89) | 12-15 (219.78) |
| Spurs | 5-3 | 5-3 (4.0) | 4-4 (238.25) |
| Celtics | 15-10 | 13-11-1 (5.76) | 11-12-2 (219.04) |
| Heat | 16-11 | 18-9 (2.11) | 13-13-1 (219.74) |
| Trail Blazers | 8-6 | 7-6-1 (-2.0) | 10-4 (240.14) |
| Clippers | 12-9 | 12-9 (4.86) | 9-11-1 (225.9) |
| Pacers | 6-6 | 6-6 (-2.08) | 4-8 (216.25) |
| Thunder | 7-8 | 8-7 (-3.93) | 7-8 (215.8) |
| Rockets | 9-11 | 8-12 (-0.9) | 6-14 (222.3) |
| Nuggets | 12-15 | 16-10-1 (-3.0) | 17-9-1 (224.41) |
| Bucks | 8-10 | 8-10 (0.78) | 10-8 (228.33) |
| Nets | 5-7 | 7-5 (-6.83) | 7-5 (237.17) |
| Jazz | 6-9 | 6-9 (-0.07) | 10-5 (226.87) |
| Kings | 3-5 | 4-4 (-3.0) | 5-3 (241.0) |
| Mavericks | 5-9 | 4-10 (-6.57) | 9-5 (246.86) |
| 76ers | 4-8 | 4-8 (-1.42) | 6-6 (228.58) |
| Magic | 4-9 | 5-8 (-4.38) | 8-5 (227.77) |
| Pelicans | 2-6 | 2-6 (-5.0) | 2-6 (231.25) |
| Grizzlies | 2-7 | 3-6 (-1.33) | 3-6 (228.67) |
| Wizards | 1-7 | 2-6 (-9.63) | 3-5 (219.38) |
NBA Team Playoff Bubble Betting Records - As of Oct. 7
Here are the two remaining teams in the NBA playoffs and their individual betting records.
| Team | SU Record | ATS Record | O/U Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lakers | 15-4 | 10-8-1 (7.05) | 8-11 (219.79) |
| Heat | 13-6 | 15-4 (2.74) | 9-10 (218.95) |
Bucks Lose As HUGE Favorite ... AGAIN!!
It’s common for favorites to not cover the spread in the NBA. It happens. That being said, it’s extremely uncommon for teams favored by a massive number of points to lose outright and the Milwaukee Bucks have outdone themselves.
They closed as 15.5-point favorites vs the Orlando Magic in Game 1 of their playoff series on August 18 and lost 122-110. That came on the heels of the Bucks losing as an all-time historic favorite when they were 19-point chalk vs the Brooklyn Nets on August 4.
Adding salt to the wound, the first loss came to the short-handed Nets, a team that at least on paper would likely have struggled in the G League as they were missing Jarrett Allen, Caris LeVert and Joe Harris. In the loss to the Magic, Orlando was without Aaron Gordon and Jonathan Isaac. FACE PALM!!
Here are the top five biggest NBA regular-season favorites to lose the game outright:
- Milwaukee Bucks-Brooklyn Nets: Bucks -19 (August 4, 2020)
- Golden State Warriors-LA Lakers: Warriors -17.5 (March 6, 2016)
- Seattle Supersonics-Detroit Pistons: Sonics -17.5 (March 15, 1994)
- Washington Wizards-Denver Nuggets: Wizards -17.5 (March 17, 1998)
- Golden State Warriors-Phoenix Suns: Warriors -17 (March 10, 2019).
