Bucks vs Thunder NBA Cup Finals Picks & Odds Today

The second-ever recipient of the NBA Cup will be crowned on Tuesday night when the Milwaukee Bucks take on the Oklahoma City Thunder, and oddsmakers at FanDuel Sportsbook have the Thunder as the five-point betting favorite heading into the matchup.

Here's a spread, moneyline, total, and player prop expert pick for the final game of the 2024 in-season tournament at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on December 17. 

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Odds

Preview: Milwaukee Bucks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:30 p.m. ET

Odds as of December 16, 2024 at FanDuel

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Expert Picks

Oklahoma City Thunder ATS -5 (-106), ML (-215)

When the Thunder prevail on the scoreboard, they rarely leave any doubt as to who the better team was. They've won nine of their last 10 games SU and successfully covered the spread on six of those occasions, with one of the three failed covers still being a 10-point margin of victory. One of the other two was against the Houston Rockets in a three-point loss SU on Dec. 1, yet that was quickly erased in the semifinals of the in-season tournament weeks later on neutral ground with a 15-point win as the 5.5-point favorites.

Milwaukee has come on strong as of late after starting the campaign with a 2-8 record SU, having now dropped just three games since Nov. 12. It remains a subpar squad when it comes to covering, though, with a 10-14-1 ATS mark with just four covers in its last nine attempts. 

Oklahoma City continues to own the No. 1-ranked defense allowing just 103.1 points per 100 possessions, and that number gets even better across six Cup games at 101.2 points per 100 possessions. Bucks guard Damian Lillard is shooting just 41.9 percent from the field across Milwaukee's last three wins and is turning the rock over more than four times per contest, and the Thunder are well-equipped defensively to contain him even further by allowing the fewest points to point guards at 20.71.

If Lillard can be negated, then that's a lot of offense that needs to be spread out through the Bucks' roster, and beyond the obvious contributions from superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo, consistency has been hard to come by for most of the team outside of veteran power forward Bobby Portis. Oklahoma City's defense should be the deciding factor here, both on the spread and into the moneyline to join the Los Angeles Lakers as the only two Cup winners. 

UNDER 216.5 Total Points (-110)

Both semifinal finishes versus the Rockets and Atlanta Hawks would have hit an UNDER on 216.5 total points. Lest we we forget that neither team is going to have any semblance of home-court advantage, and while last year's Cup final hit 232 points, that game featured the second-best offense in basketball and the one-two punch of Anthony Davis and LeBron James who offered up 65 combined points.

This game shouldn't be on the same wavelength, with defense taking centerstage in Sin City and therefore making an UNDER wager more enticing. 

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Player Props

Giannis Antetokounmpo OVER 30.5 Points (-111)

This prop is essentially a gift from oddsmakers, because Antetokounmpo has hit the OVER on 30.5 points in three-straight appearances, four of his last five, and eight of his last 10.

He scored 30 points in one of the two outings he fell UNDER, as well, so if he makes just a single free throw more, it's yet another OVER on his resume.

Isaiah Hartenstein To Record A Double-Double (-105)

While Isaiah Hartenstein didn't achieve a double-double in the semifinals against Houston, he still mustered up his strongest offensive output since his season debut with 21 points on 9-of-12 shooting.

Milwaukee allows the 22nd-most rebounds to opposing teams at 44.6, and other than Antetokounmpo, none of the other frontcourt players on the roster can attack the glass at the rate and with the ferocity that Hartenstein does. 

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Trends

*all betting trends courtesy of Outlier