High-Scoring Hornets Visit Defensive-Minded Heat

Something’s got to give Friday night when Miami (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) hosts Charlotte (4-1, 4-1). The Hornets lead the NBA in points per game, while Miami has allowed the fewest per contest. Charlotte has won three of the last four meetings, but the Heat opened as six-point favorites.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

The Hornets’ improved play this season hasn’t gone unnoticed by oddsmakers. If this point spread closes at 7 points or less, it’ll be the fewest points Charlotte has caught at Miami since March 2019.

Charlotte News & Notes

The Hornets’ offense has been firing on all cylinders to start the season, leading the NBA with an average of 121.2 points per game. It’s not as if one or two big games are propping up that average either. The Hornets have scored at least 120 points in four of their five outings, going 4-1 to the OVER during that span.

Miles Bridges has been the Hornets’ most consistent catalyst offensively, shooting 53% from the field and averaging 26 points per game. Wednesday in Orlando, Bridges scored 31 — his third 30-point effort in his last four — including a late three-pointer that iced Charlotte’s 120-111 victory.

Despite Bridges’ big numbers, the Hornets found themselves down eight points to the Magic midway through the third quarter Wednesday and allowed at least 30 points in each of the first three frames. Charlotte then showed it can dial things up defensively when it needs to, holding Orlando to 18 points in the fourth, and head coach James Borrego wants to see more of that effort going forward. “For us to be an elite team, we’ve got to do it for 48 (minutes),” Borrego told the Associated Press.

Miami News & Notes

While the Hornets have been doing it with offense, Miami’s defense has keyed the Heat’s 3-1 SU and ATS start to the campaign. Miami has yet to give up more than 95 points in regulation time, with its only loss coming in overtime at Indiana. Wednesday against the Nets, the Heat allowed just four second-chance points and 34 points in the paint while dominating the glass 62-42.

Opponents have tried to counter Miami’s inside size by attempting 42 three-pointers per game, the third-mot in the NBA so far this season. It hasn’t been an effective approach yet, with Miami allowing just a 28.6% success rate from behind the arc, but the Heat could finally get burned Friday by a Hornets squad that has knocked down 41.3% of its triples.

How Charlotte Will Cover

The Hornets are playing with a ton of confidence at the moment and can shoot their way out of any deficit, which makes them a threat to cover a spread that’s this high. If Charlotte is hot again from three-point range, don’t be surprised if the Hornets pull off the outright upset.

How Miami Will Cover

When you hold teams to 95 points or less in today’s NBA, you’re likely to win by a comfortable margin. That’s exactly what Miami has done in its three victories this season, all of which came by 13 points or more. Another effort like that would easily cover this number.

Computer Pick: Hornets +6.5

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