The Orlando Magic are on a 6-1 SU and ATS run as they get ready to host the Charlotte Hornets tonight prior to the all-star break. The Hornets have absolutely owned the Magic, however, as they are 13-0 SU and 11-2 ATS in this matchup since January 2016. Despite this and two lopsided games so far this season, the Magic open as 3.5-point favorites with the total at 215.
- The Hornets have beaten the Magic by 25 and 32 points in their previous two meetings.
- Orlando has an average winning margin of 15.8 points in its last five wins.
- Charlotte is 13-0 SU and 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games vs the Magic.
They Say History is the Best Predictor of the Future
It’s really hard to ignore the dominance that Charlotte has had over the Orlando Magic franchise. Sometimes these crazy numbers stretch back years and years and don’t carry a whole lot of weight. However, even if you look at just the two games this season, the Hornets killed it.
In the first meeting this season, the Hornets shot 46.7 percent from the floor and 44.7 percent from three-point land and followed that up with 49.4 percent shooting from the floor and 45.8 percent marksmanship from beyond the arc in the second meeting. Both games are well above the Hornets’ season averages while in Charlotte’s last 15 games, the Hornets are below the season average again at 44.6 percent field-goal shooting and 34.2 percent from three.
It’s Hard To Ignore Orlando’s Recent Improvement
Over the last 10-game spread, the Magic have the No. 4 scoring differential at 6.8, behind Milwaukee, Oklahoma City and Golden State.
During the same stretch, Orlando is fourth in offensive rebounding, second in defensive rebounding and fourth in fewest personal fouls per game.
All of those statistics contribute to the Magic having the No. 3 scoring defense in the NBA during that time.
Incidentally, the Hornets also have some pretty scoring defense numbers during this time frame, keeping opponents to 107.8 points (eighth) despite opponents shooting 47.7 percent (22nd).
My Pick For Tonight
I’ll be upfront in saying that the previous results this year certainly make me give pause to picking the Magic in this game. Charlotte has dominated the matchup while Kemba Walker has 26 and 24 points respectively in the two games.
If not for the glaring losses, I would be inclined to snatch up the Magic on the spread, but there’s clearly an advantage for Charlotte somewhere.
So, with the Hornets scoring 120 and 125 points in the first two meetings and the team total listed at 105.5 tonight, I’ll be taking Charlotte OVER 105.5 team points and staying away from a side in this game.
Charlotte is scoring 108.7 points per game in February and is averaging 111.2 points per game during the course of the season. So, with that, I think the team total is a little low for this game tonight and I’m most comfortable with that bet.
