The Philadelphia 76ers have returned home licking their wounds from a tough battle with the Celtics and will host the rebuilding Chicago Bulls in their home opener. The Sixers were one of the best teams at home after the all-star break last season as they won 24 of their last 27 games at Wells Fargo Center and are 13-3 SU in their last 16 games with one day off between games. Philly opened as an 11-point favorite with a total of 216.5.
- The 76ers are 24-3 SU and 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games at home.
- The Bulls ranked 24th in opponent three-point percentage last season (37 percent).
- The OVER has hit in 11 of the last 14 games in this matchup.
Youth Movement in Chicago Could be Risky for Bulls Backers
You’ve got to hand it to the Bulls brass for trying to acquire talent. After trading Jimmy Butler to get Lauri Markkanen, Kris Dunn and Zach LaVine, they signed hometown hero Jabari Parker in the offseason to anchor their starting lineup. While that foursome should score a ton of points, they won’t move the needle when it comes to defense as Chicago ranked 27th in points allowed per game last season (110) and 24th in opponent three-point percentage (37 percent).
If bettors are thinking of backing the Bulls moneyline tonight, it would be something I would advise against as the Bulls are 1-19 SU in their last 20 games as double-digit dogs. The spread may be a different story as they went 12-8 ATS in the same stretch so it wouldn’t be inconceivable to see Chi-Town cover.
Sixers Have Been Dominant in City of Brotherly Love
“The Process” in Philly may have taken longer than expected to come to fruition but the Sixers’ one-two punch has placed them firmly in contender status in the Eastern Conference. Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid combined for 42 points and 25 rebounds vs the Celtics and although the final result didn’t seem close, the Sixers showed they will be heard from in April and May.
Double-digit spreads can be finicky to wager on in the NBA as those leads can sometimes be lost in the waning minutes of games when they’re all but decided. But the Sixers showed at the end of last season that they were becoming a reliable spread bet when favored by 10 or more points as they went 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last five home games in that spot. Historically, Philadelphia is 17-3 SU and 14-6 ATS in its last 20 games at Wells Fargo Center when favored by double digits.
High-Scoring Game Could be In the Cards
The total opened at 216.5 and trends are pointing to an OVER. The Bulls were one of the worst defensive teams in the league last season and the OVER has hit in 11 of the last 14 games in this matchup with an average combined score of 219.2 points per game. The Sixers’ offense won’t be held to 87 points again like it was against the Celtics and in the three games that Philly and Chicago faced each other in last season, the OVER hit in each game with an average combined score of 226.3 points per game.
My Pick Is…
To take the OVER. Philly is a different team at home and should roll the Bulls but I’m cautious about taking double-digit favorites early in the season before the grind in December and January. I expect a lot of scoring in this game as the Sixers work to figure out how to match up with the Bulls’ athletes in LaVine and Parker, but Embiid should feast on a Chicago frontcourt that only has Robin Lopez to rely on at center.
