With the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers set to meet in the NBA Finals for the fourth straight season, the end result is the same but the path through the playoffs has been different than previous postseasons for the powerhouse teams. Ahead of Game 1 on Thursday at Oracle Arena, oddsmakers are clearly expecting a one-sided affair, as the Warriors are tabbed as historically large favorites.
Sportsbook opened the Warriors as 12-point home favorites with a total of 214. Shortly after, the shop moved the Dubs to -12.5.
- The Cavaliers are 0-10-1 ATS in their last 11 games on the West Coast.
- The Warriors are 17-1 SU in their last 18 games in the playoffs at home.
- The Warriors are 16-0 SU in their last 16 games as a double-digit favorite.
The -12.5 number is significant for a number of reasons, as no squad has been favored by that many points in NBA Finals history. The Los Angeles Lakers were 12-point chalk over the Philadelphia 76ers in Game 1 of the 2001 Finals, a game won by the Sixers. Golden State closed as 7.5-point faves in the series-Sportsbook game of the 2017 Finals and proceeded to easily dispatch Cleveland 113-91. The Dubs were -9 in Game 2 and went on to easily win 132-113. Including both the regular season and playoffs, Cleveland is 40-59-1 ATS, while Golden State hasn’t fared much better at 45-55-1 ATS.
The total is noticeably smaller than last year’s numbers, but when you take into account how much the Cavs have changed since then, it makes sense. Kyrie Irving is no longer a Cavalier, while LeBron James’ supporting cast is the weakest it’s been in recent memory. Warriors veteran Andre Iguodala, who got tangled up with James Harden in Game 3 of the Western Conference final and didn’t play in the last four games of the series, has been ruled out for Game 1. Kevin Love, who collided with Jayson Tatum on May 25, has completed the NBA's Concussion Return to Play Program and will suit up tonight.
Only the Warriors’ four all-stars (Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant and Draymond Green) and Houston’s P.J. Tucker have a better plus-minus in the postseason than Iggy’s plus-8.5. The OVER/UNDER closed at 225 for Game 1 of the 2017 Finals and 222 for Game 2, so it makes sense to see the shop tab the 2018 series opener at 214.
There are UNDER trends galore for this game, as the UNDER is 7-3 in the last 10 matchups between the Cavs and Warriors. Golden State has gone UNDER in eight of its last nine games with a total of 214 or more, and the Warriors have gone below the total in each of their past five games. Cleveland has gone UNDER in each of its past four road contests with an average combined score of 184.
The Cavaliers went 12-1 SU before the Finals last year but needed a litany of heroic efforts from James as well as a pair of Game 7s (first round against Indiana and in the conference final vs Boston) to get back to the promised land this time around. Golden State brings back virtually the same team from the 2017 championship club but recently erased a 3-2 series deficit to the Houston Rockets in the Western Conference final to once again advance to the NBA Finals.
Everyone knows the Cavs have had their issues with the Warriors when it comes to winning outright, but their inability to cover the spread against Steve Kerr’s crew is equally poor. Cleveland is 1-7 SU and 1-6-1 ATS in its past eight meetings with Golden State.
Sportsbook Odds & Computer Pick
Those looking to pick the visitors as their prediction to cover in this one found the Cleveland Cavaliers listed as 11.5-point underdogs earlier at Sportsbook. Meanwhile, the OVER/UNDER total betting line for this game was set at 217.5 at Sportsbook but may have moved since the betting odds opened.
Prediction-scoring formulas run on this game pick a potential 107-99 result in favor of the Warriors. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NBA matchups here.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Golden State Warriors Matchup
Team Betting Records & Power Rankings
Supporters of the Cleveland Cavaliers have seen them go 62-38 and 40-59-1 ATS so far this NBA season, while the Golden State Warriors are at 70-29 and 43-55-1 ATS. In OVER/UNDER totals betting, the Warriors are 45-53-1, while the Cavaliers are 47-51-2. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and Golden State vs Cleveland injuries news.
This game pits the Warriors, currently No. 22 in the OddsShark NBA Power Rankings, against the Cavaliers, who rate No. 8 in the most recent survey update.
Statistical Matchup
The game also pits Golden State's No. 1-ranked offense averaging 112.72 PPG, against a Cleveland defense that ranks No. 21 at 108.13 PPG. The Warriors' field-goal percentage has averaged 49.75% so far, more than the Cavaliers shooters have achieved on the year, 47.35% per game.
Recent Outings Betting Recap
Cleveland got 35 points from LeBron James en route to a 87-79 victory over Boston on Sunday at TD Garden.
Golden State got 34 points from Kevin Durant en route to a 101-92 victory over Houston on Monday at Toyota Center.
- Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
- Cleveland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 7 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games on the road
- Golden State is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Golden State's last 5 games
- Golden State is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games at home
Next Betting Matchups
Cleveland at Golden State, Sunday, June 3
