Woeful Road Mavericks Look to Knock Off the Celtics

The Dallas Mavericks continue their four-game road swing as they make their way to the TD Garden to tip off against the Boston Celtics. Dallas is coming off just its third road victory of the season and is now seeking its first win in Boston since November 2015. However, the Celtics are 7-2 SU and ATS in their last nine home games and they are a 5-point favorite in tonight’s game with the total Sportsbook at 217.5 points.

Mavericks vs Celtics Game Center

Mavs seeking a rare two road wins in a row

Dallas has split its first two road games on this four-game swing, but is coming off a dominant 122-84 triumph over Charlotte and eyeing its first two-game winning streak on the road since December 31, 2017, and January 10, 2018. Since then, the Mavericks are just 6-31 SU when they play on opposing courts. The stats themselves aren’t that bad for the Mavs on the road as they rank near the middle of the league in the majority of both offensive and defensive categories. Notably, they average 108.4 points per game to rate 16th in the NBA and surrender 113.3 ppg for the No. 18 mark.

That being said, one glaring issue is turnovers and poor transitioning to defense. Dallas averages 16.6 turnovers per road game, the second-most in the Association, and gives up the fourth-most points off turnovers per game. They also surrender the most fast-break points per road game at 17.6. Lastly, the Mavs allow opposing forwards to score an average of 66.5 ppg, the third-most in the league, while the Celtics get the sixth-most ppg from their forwards at 63.2.

Celtics offense rolling of late

Boston has been on a win-one, lose-one streak over its last five games but it is 10-5 SU in its last 15 overall. Over that span, the Celtics have led the league by scoring 117.1 points per game and drained the second-most three-pointers per game at 13.7. Point guard Kyrie Irving has been leading the way, scoring the game high in nine of those games, but he will not be in tonight’s match as he is dealing with an eye injury that he suffered against San Antonio on New Year’s Eve. In three games the all-star guard has missed this season, the Celts have gone 2-1 SU and averaged 114.33 ppg.

Points have been hard to come by for opposing teams when they visit the Garden as Boston is surrendering just 103.8 ppg at home, the fourth-best mark in the NBA, but its offense slows as well as it racks up 112.5 ppg, which is the 14th-fewest. While the Mavericks are turnover-prone on the road, the Celtics create the sixth-most turnovers per game at home at 16.1 and score 19.1 points per game off turnovers to rank fourth in the league.

 Should you be on the OVER?

Boston has been the highest-scoring team over the last 15 games and Sportsbook has tonight’s total Sportsbook at 217.5 points. The Celtics have gone OVER in 10 of their last 11 games with an average combined score of 228.18. Meanwhile, the total has gone OVER in six of Dallas’ last 10 games with an average combined score of 230.3 and only two games going UNDER 217.5 points. Lastly, Dallas gives up the 10th-most shots per game on the road at 90.3, but only contests 60.6 of those attempts, which are the eighth-fewest. Giving open looks to Boston will allow it to run up the score and hit the OVER.

My take on Dallas vs Boston

I like Boston to cover the 5-point spread. Dallas hasn’t won back-to-back road games since late December 2017 into early January 2018, a span of 40 games. Meanwhile, the Celtics are 7-2 SU and ATS in their last nine games with an average winning margin of 18.71, not winning a game by fewer than seven points over that span. Additionally, the Mavericks are just 3-16 SU in their 19 road games with an average losing margin of 9.75 with just five games in which they lost by fewer than five points. Lastly, Dallas averages the second-most turnovers per game this season and Boston creates the seventh-most turnovers per game. I expect that the Celtics will make the most of their opportunities and easily cover the spread.