Jazz Big Favorites Hosting COVID-Depleted Mavericks On Christmas

The Utah Jazz (22-9 SU, 16-15 ATS) are 10-3 SU and 7-5-1 ATS in their last 13 games against the Dallas Mavericks (15-16 SU, 14-17 ATS). The Jazz will be looking for a third straight home win over the Mavericks when they square off in Utah on Christmas Day.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

The Jazz opened as 5.5-point favorites back when the line on this game was released months ago, but the current form of these two teams and Dallas’ injury and COVID-19 woes have driven the line up to Utah -12. The total is also way down to 214 points from its opener at 224.5 points. The Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against Western Conference opponents.

Dallas News & Notes

The Mavericks fell to 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS over their last four games with a 102-95 loss to the Milwaukee Bucks on Thursday night. Dallas’ roster was barely recognizable with Luka Doncic and Tim Hardaway Jr. out due to COVID-19 protocols and Kristaps Porzingis out with a toe injury. Hardaway Jr. and Porzingis are questionable to return on Christmas to face the Jazz while Doncic has already been ruled out of the contest.

Dallas has struggled with consistency all season long with a disappointing 15-16 SU and 14-17 ATS start to the campaign. The Mavericks haven’t shown much bite as an underdog this season with a 3-12 SU and 6-9 ATS record in their 15 instances as one. The team has performed well as double-digit underdogs recently, however, with a 3-3 SU and 6-0 ATS record in their last six games as one.

Utah News & Notes

Donovan Mitchell scored 28 points with seven assists and Rudy Gobert recorded 20 points and 17 rebounds in Utah’s 128-116 win over the Minnesota Timberwolves. Even though they won the game handily, the Jazz failed to cover the spread as 15.5-point favorites, falling to 0-4 ATS over their last four games with a 2-2 SU record over that stretch. Utah was 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS over its previous eight games prior to the recent ATS slump.

The Jazz have suprisingly been better on the road this season with a 10-3 SU and 8-5 ATS record than they have been at home with a 12-6 SU and 8-10 ATS record at home. Utah has a golden opportunity to pick up a home win in this spot with Luka Doncic out of the mix.

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How Dallas Will Cover

With Luka Doncic out, the Mavericks simply aren’t built to shoot out with anyone, much less Utah’s top-scoring offense in the NBA. Dallas does rank fifth in the NBA in scoring defense allowing 104.6 points per game and will need to lean heavily on that defense to cover the spread in this one.

How Utah Will Cover

While the Mavericks roster is currently decimated by injuries and COVID-19 injuries, Utah has perhaps the healthiest team playing in these five Christmas games. The team’s outstanding depth and home-court advantage should lead the Jazz to a big win and cover on Saturday.

Computer Pick: Mavericks +12

While this is the last game of Christmas Day, you can see the other NBA predictions over at our NBA Computer Picks page.