After traveling to the West Coast and getting a split against the Warriors and Blazers, the Houston Rockets return home for liftoff to host the Denver Nuggets tonight. The Rockets finally got tripped up by the Blazers on their recent domination of the NBA but will be looking forward to returning to the Toyota Center, where they’ve won nine straight. The Nuggets, on the other hand, have the best record in the Western Conference and are one of three teams in the West with a winning record on the road.
The Rockets opened as 1-point faves (since moved to -1.5) with a total of 215.
- The Rockets are 9-0 SU and 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 games at home (avg. win margin: 11.0).
- The Nuggets rank second in the NBA in opponents’ three-point percentage.
- The OVER has hit in 8 of the Rockets’ last 12 games at home.
Nuggets vs Rockets Game Center
Rockets Have Been Money At Home Recently
Although they’ve been short-handed without Chris Paul in the lineup, the Rockets don’t seem to be rushing him back given how James Harden has been playing lately. The Beard has scored over 35 points in nine of Houston’s last 10 games and has helped to steer the Rockets to a 6-1 SU record with the all-star point guard on the mend.
Something clicked in mid-December for Houston and as a result, the Rockets have been lights-out when they get to play at home. H-Town has gone 9-0 SU and 8-0-1 ATS in the last nine games at Toyota Center and has won 11 of the last 13 games overall, with those two losses obviously coming on the road. The easy thing to do would be to point to Harden’s insane scoring run but it’s the emergence of center Clint Capela that has allowed the Rockets to play more of a traditional style of basketball with Paul and Eric Gordon out and he’s averaging 17.1 points per game since the beginning of December.
When you consider that the Rockets have won eight straight games in this matchup (winning margin: 12.5) and haven’t lost at home to the Nuggets since 2015 (6-0 SU), it makes it pretty easy to endorse a Houston moneyline wager.
Nuggets Defense Is Their Only Shot
The Nuggets have been a revelation this season but they might be running into an NBA buzzsaw tonight. Denver isn’t some chumpy team coming into Houston as the Nuggets own the best record in the Western Conference and are 16-6 SU in 22 games vs Western Conference teams.
Denver has gotten this far by holding teams to 33 percent from three-point range (ranked second in the NBA) and 105.2 points per game (third) and is fifth in the league in point differential at +5.5. However, while the Nuggets get by with the defense, the offense is where their bread is buttered as the duo of Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray have been on fire of late. Murray has scored 30 or more points in three of the Nuggets’ last five victories while Jokic leads the NBA in assists for a center and is averaging nine dimes during that same stretch to go with 25.6 points per game.
While the Nuggets are one of three teams in the West to have a winning record on the road, I’m not confident they can overcome the Rockets. The spread is so low that it almost comes down to a pick’em and there are just too many factors working against the Nuggets, including their six straight losses in H-Town.
Totals Bettors Should Eye The OVER
The total opened at 215 and when the Rockets play at home, the OVER typically follows. The OVER has hit in eight of Houston’s last 12 games at home and eight of the Rockets’ last 11 games when the closing total is 216 or less. When you factor in that the OVER has hit in the Nuggets’ last four games (average combined score: 231.5), this one could be a barnburner.
My Pick Is…
To take the Rockets moneyline. I think it’s pretty difficult to pick against the Rockets at home, let alone when they’re only a 1-point favorite at home. I know the Nuggets are a good challenger but I think they fall short in Houston.
