The Denver Nuggets may own one of the best records in the NBA this season but the true measure of a championship contender is how they fare on the road and their mettle will be tested vs the lowly Memphis Grizzlies tonight. The Nuggets have dropped three of their last four road games and at 11-11 SU in 22 games away from the Pepsi Center, they can’t be considered a lock, even against a dumpster fire like the Grizz.
The Nuggets opened as 6-point favorites with a total of 208.5.
- The Nuggets are 3-7 SU and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games on the road.
- The Grizzlies are 4-20 SU and ATS in their last 24 games.
- The OVER has hit in 12 of the Nuggets’ last 15 games.
Nuggets vs Grizzlies Game Center
Backing Nuggets On the Road Recently Has Been a Losing Endeavor
The Nuggets will definitely be in the mix come playoff time and could very well catch the Warriors for the top spot in the Western Conference but even the great teams win consistently on the road. The Nuggets are 2-3 SU in five road games this month, including an ugly loss to the Suns. To be fair, the other two losses were to the Jazz and Rockets, but it still doesn’t breed confidence in backing Denver when you see its 5-9 ATS record in 14 road games vs West teams this season.
The Nuggets own the best home record in the NBA at 22-4 SU in 26 games while ranking third in points allowed per game (103.8) and second in opponent three-point percentage (32.8). However, those numbers take a sharp dip when they play away from the Pepsi Center as the scoring defense number increases to 109.1 and the three-point percentage jumps to 36.8.
I’m not going to try to justify the Nuggets in this one because they are the superior team but I’m not confident they can cover the spread. Considering how they’ve fared on the road lately and with starting shooting guard Jamal Murray being out for tonight’s game, that makes me nervous in backing the Nuggets to win handily.
Grizzlies May Need Reconstructive Surgery After This NoseDive
4-20 SU in their last 24 games. Do you know how hard that is to do when having two decent players in Mike Conley and Marc Gasol? At 2-12 SU in 14 games in January, that type of record is reserved for the Bulls, Cavaliers, Knicks and Suns of the NBA so to now lump Memphis in that category is hard to fathom.
The Grizzlies are allowing opponents to shoot 39.3 percent from three-point range this month while ranking 19th in opponent field-goal percentage (47.1). Memphis is coming off its first home win in nearly a month, over the short-handed Pacers, and when the Grizz hosted the Nuggets in November, they scraped by with an 89-87 win.
I can’t see the Grizzlies repeating that November performance and at 4-20 ATS in their last 24 games, I can’t endorse a Memphis spread pick in this matchup.
Nuggets Games Have Led to a Lot of OVERs
The total opened at 208.5 and while these teams share the attribute of having decent scoring defenses, I think this game goes OVER. The Nuggets have been one of the best OVER bets in the Association lately as it has hit in 12 of their last 15 games with an average combined score of 227.6. In those 15 games, only two of them went below 209 points.
My Pick Is…
To take the OVER. As mentioned, the Grizzlies’ defense has been subpar this month and so has the Nuggets’ when playing on the road. I think this line is set too low and considering the OVER has hit in the Nuggets’ last seven games (average combined score: 233.2), I like this one to cash in.
