Heat Favored Over Sputtering Nuggets

The Miami Heat (13-7 SU, 13-7 ATS) entertain the Denver Nuggets (9-10, 7-12) on Monday at FTX Arena as solid home favorites. The Heat are 6-2 in their last eight games while the Nuggets have lost five consecutive contests as reigning MVP Nikola Jokic has been out of the lineup for four straight.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

The Heat opened as 8-point home favorites over the struggling Nuggets. The total was set at 207.5 points with the OVER going 9-3 in Miami’s last 12  games. The Heat are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games while the Nuggets are 0-6 ATS in their last six outings. Denver owns an 8-2 record against Miami through the last 10 meetings.

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Denver News & Notes

The Nuggets have understandably hit a rough patch of late with the loss of Jokic, who has been sidelined for four games with a wrist injury. They dropped their last game on Friday 120-109 to the Milwaukee Bucks as Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 24 points in just 30 minutes on the court. The Nuggets had balanced scoring as Aaron Gordon led the way with 18 points and four others scored 15 or more, but they simply gave up too much defensively.

Jokic, who hasn’t played since November 18, is putting up another MVP-caliber season with 26.4 points and 13.6 rebounds per game. The star center is questionable for Monday along with Bones Hyland (ankle) while PJ Dozier (knee) is out indefinitely.

Miami News & Notes

The Heat came out on top in a close game on Saturday, picking up a 107-104 win over the Chicago Bulls. DeMar DeRozan scored a game-high 28 points for Chicago but Miami was able to mount a fourth-quarter comeback to steal the game.

Miami has cooled off slightly, going 2-2 in its last four contests after posting a five-game winning streak earlier this month. Still, the Heat boast the NBA’s second-best defense, allowing just 102.5 points per game.

Jimmy Butler (tailbone) and Tyler Herro (illness) are questionable for Monday.

How Denver Will Cover

Denver is the clear underdog in this matchup but that’s likely with the assumption that Jokic remains out. Add in Miami’s injury report, and there are a few ways that this matchup could play out. If Jokic is in and even just one of Butler or Herro is out, that’s a pretty big swing in Denver’s favor. It obviously hinges on his health, but Jokic himself could keep this game close – or even win it for the Nuggets.

How Miami Will Cover

On the other side of the court, the Heat will be hoping that Butler and Herro are good to go while Jokic is out. In this scenario, a big Miami win seems likely, especially given their defensive strength and Denver’s offensive struggles without their MVP.

Computer Pick: Heat -7.5

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