The Oklahoma City Thunder play the second of their four-game homestand as they welcome the Denver Nuggets to the Chesapeake Energy Arena. Denver has an opportunity to grab the Northwest Division lead as it trails Oklahoma City by a half game. Both teams are on a two-game winning streak and the Thunder are a five-point favorite with the total Sportsbook at 217 points.
- Oklahoma City is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games.
- Denver is 3-6 SU and ATS in its last nine games.
- The total has gone UNDER in nine of Denver’s last 14 games.
Denver vs Oklahoma City Game Center
Thunder haven’t lost at home since late October
After starting the season 0-4, Oklahoma City has won 12 of its last 14 games, including covering the spread in 10 of those contests. The Thunder has struck a good balance between solid defense and taking high-percentage shots. They have the eighth-lowest shooting percentage from beyond the arc, most notably Russell Westbrook is hitting just 20.5 percent of his three-point attempts. However, the California native is attempting his fewest treys per game this season at just 3.9, compared to the 7.2 he was averaging in the 2016-17 season, but his shooting percentage overall is at its highest in his career as he’s nailing 48.2 percent of his shots from the floor.
The team as a whole is averaging 66.4 points from two-pointers at home this season which is the second-most in the association. The Thunder are also doing a good job getting their big man Steven Adams involved as he is averaging 15.7 points per game which the highest in his career. OKC plays an up-tempo style that averages the 10th-most possessions per game and it gets extra opportunities by averaging the most steals in the league at 10.7.
Denver’s pulling out of its tailspin
Sort of the opposite story of the Thunder is how the Nuggets’ season has gone thus far. Denver took the league by storm posting a 9-1 record through its first 10 games, however, it fell off a cliff since then going 3-6 SU and ATS, but it has won its last two games. The defense has been the key to victory for the Nuggets as they are allowing the third-fewest points per game this season at 103.4 and on the road, they remain the third-best defensive squad surrendering 104.5 points per game.
Unlike OKC, though, Denver likes to slow the pace down in its games, averaging the fifth-fewest possessions per game at 101.7 and that slightly dips to 101.6 on the road. The Nuggets also do a good job at limiting their opponents’ possessions per game as they allow the fifth-fewest offensive rebounds in the league but the Thunder average the most offensive boards so a good battle should brew there.
UNDER Trending in tonight’s game
With a battle among two of the top-five best defensive teams in the league Sportsbook has the total Sportsbook at 217 points. The total has gone UNDER in six of Oklahoma City’s last nine games with an average combined 209.67, while the total has gone UNDER in nine of Denver’s last 14 games with an average combined score of 212. Both teams rank in the bottom third of the league in three-point percentage with OKC hitting just 31.7 percent of its triples (second-worst percentage in the league) and Denver shooting 34 percent (ninth-worst). Lastly, both teams do a good job rebounding and I think there will be limited second-chance opportunities keeping this a low-scoring game.
My take on Denver vs Oklahoma City
I like the UNDER 217 points in tonight’s game. Both teams preach defense and offensively stick to two-pointers rather than the extra point beyond the arc. With the opportunity to grab the division lead on the line I think both squads will be on their A-game looking to show the other what they got. Lastly, four of the last six meetings between these two teams have gone UNDER with those four games all going UNDER 217 points.
