After dropping seven of eight games on their annual rodeo road trip, the San Antonio Spurs are back in the comforts of the Alamo and will look to win their seventh home game in a row vs the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets have been hit-or-miss on the road lately at 4-5 SU and 2-7 ATS in their last nine away games and have dropped 12 straight games in San Antonio since 2012.
The Spurs opened as 1-point favorites with a total of 227.5.
STANDOUT STATS
- The Spurs have been one of the best bets at home this season at 24-7 SU and 20-11 ATS in 31 games. When facing Western Conference teams, they’re 18-3 SU and 15-6 ATS in 21 games.
- The Spurs are 4-2 ATS vs the Nuggets since the start of last season and have covered the spread in both games this season.
- The Nuggets are 6-7 ATS in 13 road games as an underdog this season and 2-6 ATS in their last eight games in that spot. They've also lost 12 straight games in San Antonio by an average margin of 14.7 points per game.
- The Spurs score four more points per game at home than on the road and hold teams to five points less per game at home than on the road. This has led to the Spurs owning the sixth-best point differential in home games in the NBA (+7.6).
- The Nuggets’ defense ranks third in the NBA in points allowed per home game but in five road games in February, they allowed 118.2 points per game to rank 20th in the NBA in that span.
- The total has gone UNDER in five of the Nuggets’ last seven games on the road (avg. combined score: 220.86).
My Best Bet for Nuggets vs Spurs
Spurs -1
I was initially not very confident in taking the Spurs to win and cover the spread in this game but they have looked much better at home than on the road this season and defend the paint and three-point line much better at AT&T Center. I think that because of how badly the Spurs did on their most recent road trip (1-7 SU), oddsmakers don’t want to make the line too high in fear that no bets will come in on San Antonio.
I don’t usually get caught up in trends like the Nuggets losing 12 straight in San Antonio but the one trend that is almost undeniable is how the Spurs have done at home this season. They perform way better in front of their home fans while the Nuggets’ defense gives up on average 4.5 more points on the road while their opponents’ shooting percentages go up. With the spread being so low and essentially a pick’em, I’ll side with history and the home team.
