Wagering against the San Antonio Spurs at home was usually a hard pass from basketball bettors but it doesn’t sound far-fetched going into Game 6 vs the Denver Nuggets. The Spurs have lost the last two games of the series, including Game 4 at AT&T Center, where they allowed the Nuggets to explode for 117 points and shoot over 40 percent from behind the arc. The Spurs were one of the best home bets during the regular season and opened as 3-point favorites with a total of 208.
STANDOUT STATS
- Coming into this series, the Spurs were the best three-point shooting team in the NBA (39.2 percent) and second-best shooting team from the field (47.8 percent). What’s most surprising about those numbers is they ranked 17th in total shot attempts per game, which means that the Spurs are taking efficient shots in Gregg Popovich’s system. However, through five games of this series, they rank last out of all playoff teams in three-point attempts per game (17) while hitting 33.7 percent of those shots (ranked ninth). But they are sixth-best in field-goal percentage (47.5).
- Further to that point above, it’s actually the Nuggets who have been the best three-point shooting team in the playoffs thus far as they rank first in three-point percentage (41.4) on only 29 attempts per game. The Nuggets offense has looked remarkably better since Game 1 when they were held to 96 points and only 21.4 percent from behind the arc, topping 108 points in each game since while shooting over 40 percent from the perimeter. Nikola Jokic may be the biggest reason for the offensive turnaround as the center has scored 20 or more points in three of the last four games while averaging over nine assists.
- Although the Spurs split their two home games in this series, they were lights-out at home during the regular season. San Antonio was 32-9 SU and 24-7 ATS this year and in 20 games as a favorite of 4 points or less at AT&T Center, the Spurs were 17-3 SU and 15-5 ATS. In two home games vs the Nuggets during the season, they won both, but they failed to cover when they hosted Denver on March 4.
- The Nuggets may have gotten a split in San Antonio in this series but they were not great in road games during the regular season. They were one of three playoff teams that had a negative point differential in road games this season (-3.4). Their defensive splits for points allowed per game and field-goal percentage were similar for both home and on the road but it’s their offense that drops off. They scored three fewer points per road game compared to home while ranking 28th in field-goal percentage and 18th in three-point percentage.
- Although the UNDER was the hot play coming into each game of this series, OVER bettors have been cashing in mostly in this series. The OVER has hit in three of five games with an average combined score of 215 and both games went OVER the total in San Antonio.
My Best Bet for Nuggets vs Spurs
Spurs -3
Backs against the wall, I expect the Spurs to come out firing and extend this series to seven games. Denver needed a late surge in the fourth quarter to win Game 4 in San Antonio and while I expect them to keep this game close, the spread is so low that it might as well be a moneyline bet.
The Nuggets’ three-point shooting may also not be sustainable and they’re likely due for a regression after hitting over 40 percent of their three-point attempts in three of the last five games. I also think the OVER will be a decent play considering how well the Spurs have shot at home and how efficient the offense has been in this series, so if you can’t decide on a spread, stick with the OVER.
