After throttling the Pistons in Detroit, the Boston Celtics return to TD Garden to finish up a home-and-home series with their Eastern Conference foe. The Celtics are starting to hit their stride as they’ve held teams to less than 100 points in three straight games and are leading the NBA in points allowed per game (96.3).
The Celtics opened as 9-point favorites with a total of 209.5.
- The Celtics are 12-2 SU and ATS in their last 14 games at home.
- The Pistons are ranked 23rd in 3-point field-goal percentage.
- The UNDER has hit in 3 of the last 4 games in this matchup.
Pistons vs Celtics Game Center
Celtics Have Been Tough To Beat in BeanTown
The depth for the Boston Celtics may be a gift and a curse for head coach Brad Stevens but he seems to be figuring out the proper rotations to get everyone fed. Outside of a home loss against the Magic, the C’s have topped 100 points in every game and have staggered the minutes to have a solid 10-man rotation.
The only part that is concerning is the play of Kyrie Irving through five games as he is only averaging 14 points per game and shooting a woeful 24 percent from deep. While that isn’t a trend I expect to continue, Irving’s struggles to adapt is one of the key reasons why Boston is ranked 29th in points per game.
While I may be nitpicking the Celtics’ offensive scheme, the reality is their strength is on defense as they’re ranked first in the NBA in points allowed per game, third in opponent field-goal percentage and first in opponent three-point percentage. This has led Boston to be one of the more reliable teams when tabbed as a fave as it’s 9-3 ATS in the last 12 games and 12-1 ATS in the last 13 games as a favorite of 9 points or less. Factoring in that the Celtics are 12-2 SU and ATS in their last 14 games at TD Garden, the bettors should feel good about backing them tonight.
Lack of Shooting May Brick the Pistons’ Chances
Detroit’s first loss of the season felt very impactful even though it was only the fifth game of the season. The Pistons were manhandled on their home floor by the Celtics, losing by 20, and one of the main reasons for the loss was how poorly they shot from deep. Detroit was 7-for-37 (17 percent) from downtown and is shooting 33 percent from three-point range in five games this season, which ranks 23rd. That plays right into the hands of the Celtics, who as mentioned are clamping down on teams from the perimeter.
Blake Griffin had his worst game of the season when the Pistons faced the Celtics but so far this year, he’s been one of the leading candidates for MVP as he’s averaging 28.4 points per game to go with 10 rebounds and just under five assists. That has led him to be ranked 10th in player efficiency rating (PER), which is his highest rating in that category since the 2014 season.
Dating back to last season, the Pistons have not done well as a road underdog as they’re 0-10 SU and 3-7 ATS with an average loss margin of 15 points per game. Considering they got smoked by this same team on their home floor, it could be a tough sell to take the Pistons on the spread tonight.
UNDER ALERT!
The total opened at 209.5 and trends are pointing to an UNDER. The UNDER has hit in three of the last four games in this matchup with an average combined score of 192.6 points per game. When these teams met last Saturday, the final combined score was 198 and the Celtics own the best defense in the league.
My Pick Is…
To take the UNDER. The Pistons are not a good three-point shooting team and the Celtics’ defense should hold them to 90 points or less. With Boston’s scoring down to 101.5 per game, I expect the Celtics to win and keep the total below 210.
