After suffering their first home loss of the season, the Toronto Raptors will look to rebound when a familiar foe comes to town in the Detroit Pistons. The Pistons themselves may be just another team but their new head coach is someone the Raptors are very acquainted with. Dwane Casey has led the Pistons to a 6-6 SU and 5-7 ATS record this season and should be extra motivated to stick it to Toronto after being fired in the offseason.
The Raptors opened as 10-point favorites with a total of 223.5.
- The Raptors are 6-0 SU and 3-2-1 ATS in the last six games vs the Pistons.
- The Pistons are ranked third in opponent three-point percentage.
- The OVER has hit in 7 of the Raptors’ 8 home games this season.
Pistons vs Raptors Game Center
Raptors Have Owned This Matchup Recently
Toronto’s loss to the Pelicans on Monday was a real eye-opener as the Raptors were shown that they can be beaten when shots don’t fall. The Raps shot only 28 percent from three-point range, which is down from their season average of 34.5 percent, and were outscored by 11 in the second half. That unenviable matchup with Anthony Davis won’t happen every night and Pistons forwards Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond are nowhere near the talent that the Brow is.
Although the shots from deep didn’t fall, the Raptors are still ranked second in the NBA in field-goal percentage (48.6) with six players averaging double digits in scoring and only two players averaging more than 30 minutes of playing time (Kyle Lowry and Kawhi Leonard). This has naturally translated to the Raptors averaging 117.4 points per game, which is nearly six points more than their average last season (111.7).
In this matchup specifically, Toronto has been dominant for moneyline bettors, going 6-0 SU in the last six games, but on the spread, the record for those games is 3-2-1 ATS. When you look at the Raptors’ record as a double-digit fave, they’re great on the moneyline, winning 10 straight in that scenario, but on the spread, they’re 4-5-1 ATS. The spread seems too high to back the Raptors at that number.
Pistons’ Defense Has Been Hit-Or-Miss
Dwane Casey has always been known as a defensive-minded coach and his Pistons are bringing it on that side of the court. Detroit ranks third in opponent three-point percentage (32 percent) and fourth in rebounds per game (49.2) and first in offensive rebounds with Andre Drummond leading the NBA in boards.
Rebounding is obviously key but if you don’t stop teams from scoring in the paint, it doesn’t really matter about missed shots. The Pistons are allowing 49.2 points down low each game, which ranks 21st in the league, while also ranking 21st in opponent field-goal percentage. That is a cause for concern when your team has most of your salary cap tied up in two forwards who aren’t good defenders around the basket. I won’t go as far as saying that the Pistons will cover the spread in this game but due to their ability to rebound, the likelihood they can keep this game close can’t be dismissed.
OVER Bettors Seeing Profit When Raptors At Home
Owning the second-best OVER record in the NBA, when the Toronto Raptors take the floor, the total usually gets crushed. The OVER has hit in seven of the Raptors’ eight home games this season (10 of their 14 games overall) with an average combined score of 227.8 points per game. With the total Sportsbook at 223.5, I like the OVER to come through at this number and expect it to increase by tipoff.
My Pick Is…
To take the OVER. The Raptors spread is a little too much for me to feel comfortable taking it because of Casey knowing the tendencies of the majority of the players on the Toronto roster. I also think the total is too low so I’m on the OVER as I think the Raptors come out firing after being snake-bitten from three-point range last game.
