Weary Nuggets Return Home to Host Warriors

Denver has been the worst bet in the NBA this season, covering just three of its first 11 contests. The Nuggets (5-6 SU) will play their eighth game in two weeks when they host Golden State (6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS). Denver opened as a 6-point favorite.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

The Warriors haven’t opened as this much of an underdog since Christmas Day, when they were whipped by the Bucks as 10.5-point pups. The early money has been on Golden State and the UNDER, moving those numbers to +5 and 229, respectively.

Golden State News & Notes

As Steph Curry goes, so do the Warriors. As obvious as that seems to NBA fans, it has seemed even more apparent to Golden State’s last two opponents, who designed their defense around shutting down the Dubs sharpshooter.

Toronto and Indiana both employed the rarely used box-and-one zone to great success, holding Curry to an average of 15.5 points, a dramatic drop from the 35.8 he’d averaged in his previous four outings.

The Warriors were able to survive an off night from Curry in a last-second win over the Raptors on Sunday, but getting just two fourth-quarter points from their superstar caught up with them in Tuesday’s 104-95 loss to the Pacers. Golden State is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS this season when Curry scores 30 or more points, compared to 1-5 SU and ATS when he doesn’t.

Forward Eric Paschall, one of the Warriors’ most reliable secondary scorers, will miss his second consecutive game due to COVID-19 health and safety protocols. Paschall has posted double-digit scoring numbers in eight straight games and is averaging 12.1 points in 19.3 minutes this season.

Denver News & Notes

The Nuggets may have had the toughest early-season schedule in the NBA, with tonight’s contest their eighth in a 14-day span. Denver is also coming off a three-game East Coast road trip, which could have the Nuggets a little flat in the early going.

The Nuggets looked fatigued in the second half of Tuesday’s 122-116 loss to the Nets, when Brooklyn blitzed Denver for 68 points on 69 percent shooting in the final 24 minutes.

Defensive specialist Gary Harris missed the Nets game due to undisclosed personal reasons and is expected to be unavailable again against the Warriors. Michael Porter Jr. also won’t suit up as coach Michael Malone told reporters Tuesday that the small forward tested positive for COVID-19. Porter, who has missed Denver’s last seven games, will need to spend at least 10 more days in quarantine.

WIthout a couple of their key cogs, the Nuggets need Jamal Murray to look more like the player who was the talk of the bubble in last year’s playoffs. Murray hasn’t scored more than 21 points in a game since January 3 and is averaging just 19.7 points, 2.9 rebounds and 3.8 assists on the campaign.

Betting Pick: Nuggets -5

As bad a scheduling spot as this looks like for the Nuggets, it’s hard to pass up this short a price with Denver on its home floor. Each of the Nuggets’ last 10 victories have come by six points or more.