Considering I can count on one hand the number of times the Golden State Warriors have been an underdog this season coming into this game vs the Houston Rockets, it’s a rare occurrence to have them not favored in a regular-season game. Despite eliminating the Rockets in last year’s Western Conference final, the Warriors have not fared well in this matchup this season as they’ve lost all three games vs Houston by an average of 9.3 points per game.
The Rockets opened as 3.5-point favorites with a total of 232.5.
Warriors vs Rockets Game Center
STANDOUT STATS
- Kevin Durant has been ruled out for this game. In the lone game he missed this season, the Warriors lost by seven points to the Magic. For what it’s worth, the Warriors were 9-5 SU in 14 games without Durant in the lineup last season.
- The Warriors have only been an underdog five times this season and in each one of those games, one or more of their big four of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant or Draymond Green was not in the lineup. Their record in those games this season is 1-4 SU and ATS, with one of those losses coming to Houston.
- In those five games as an underdog, the Warriors offense dips heavily. They’ve averaged 101.2 points per game and have been held below 100 points in three of those games with the UNDER hitting three times.
- The Rockets have won nine games in a row while going 5-3-1 ATS. In those games, the Rockets own a +8.2 point differential and are shooting 36.3 percent from behind the arc on a league-leading 44 attempts. Their defense has also been outstanding as they’ve held teams to 44.8 percent from the field (rated seventh) on 84.3 attempts (rated third).
- The Warriors have been the worst spread bet in the NBA this season at 26-39-1 ATS and have lost seven games this season by 20 points or more. Since the beginning of February, bettors would have made a ton of money if they faded the Warriors since the start of the month. The Dubs are 3-12 ATS since February 1 and while they’re 9-6 SU in those games, they have outright losses to teams like Phoenix, Boston, Houston and Portland.
- The total has gone UNDER in the Warriors’ last five games (avg. combined score: 222.4) and seven of their last eight overall. The UNDER has also hit in four of the Rockets’ last five games with an average combined score of 206.
My Best Bet for Warriors vs Rockets
UNDER 232.5 and Rockets -3.5
While I feel confident the Rockets will win this game by four points or more, I feel much better about taking the UNDER. The Warriors offense is in a rut and when they’ve been an underdog this season, it’s because one of their big four is out. Their offense has been awful in those five games with Golden State falling below 100 points in three of them.
Trends support the pick given how these teams have played lately and if you don’t feel comfortable taking the UNDER, stick with the spread because the Rockets will be foaming at the mouth to lay a beatdown on the Warriors.
