A pair of unbeaten teams will do battle in Colorado as the Denver Nuggets host the Golden State Warriors tonight. The Nuggets dominated the Clippers and Suns for their first two wins of the season but the Warriors are a completely different beast compared to two teams not expected to make the playoffs. The Dubs needed a last-second shot from Jonas Jerebko vs the Jazz to remain undefeated and have won eight of the last 12 games in this matchup.
The Warriors are 4-point favorites with a total of 229.
- The Nuggets are 6-4 SU and ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog at home.
- The Warriors are 2-9-2 ATS in last 13 games vs the Nuggets.
- The OVER has hit in 11 of the last 13 games in this matchup.
Warriors vs Nuggets Game Center
Nuggets Are Rarely a Home Dog
Denver took care of business in its home opener against the Suns when they held them to 91 points and 28 percent from three-point range (11 for 39). That’s back-to-back games of the Nuggets holding opponents to less than 30 percent from deep which is impressive considering Denver ranked dead-last in the NBA in opponents three-point field goal percentage last season. Well, the celebration may be short-lived with the Warriors in town who boast four players who all shoot above 35 percent from downtown.
The Nuggets are not used to being underdogs at home as the altitude in Colorado along with their roster usually gives them a leg-up on the competition. Denver was a home underdog five times last season and two of those games were against the Rockets and Warriors. The Nugs finished 3-2 SU and ATS in five games as a home dog and it shouldn’t surprise bettors that those two losses were against the Dubs and Rockets. In the last 10 games at home when they’re a pup, the Nuggets are 6-4 SU and ATS.
Warriors Have Burned Spread-Bettors in This Spot
No one will argue when proclaiming the Warriors as the best team in the NBA but the one weakness they’ve shown through two games is taking care of the ball. Golden State has turned the ball over 37 times through two games which is why teams like the Thunder and Jazz have kept the games close and prevented the Warriors from covering the spread.
Bettors may have a love/hate relationship when taking the Warriors to cover as they’re either completely overvalued with an insanely high spread or will take a laid-back approach and bench their star players like Steph Curry or Kevin Durant. That’s why when I see the Warriors have gone 2-9-2 ATS in their last 13 games vs Denver, it gives me pause to endorse a Golden State cover bet in this one. The Warriors have dropped two of their last three games at the Pepsi Center and were favored by eight points or more in all three of those contests.
Conflicting Trends for Totals Bettors
The total opened at 229 and although the OVER has hit in 11 of the last 13 games in this matchup, the line may be too high which makes an UNDER wager a smart play. The total has only surpassed 229 in five of those games with the average combined score at 219.3 points per game. Couple that with the fact that the UNDER has hit in both of the Nuggets’ games this season and this tilt is projecting to fall short of the total.
My Pick is….
To take the UNDER. I know it won’t be a popular pick to bet against these offenses but the line just seems a bit high for me to pounce on the OVER. Look for both teams to still top 100 points but fall short of 229.
