Although some of the usual characters from the Golden State Warriors will be on the sidelines, the buzz is still in the air when the Dubs take on the Toronto Raptors tonight. The Warriors will be without Stephen Curry and Draymond Green for this tilt and Golden State is 5-5 SU and 2-8 ATS with Curry out of the lineup this season. That may bode well for the Raptors, who are 9-2 SU in 11 home games and are riding a six-game win streak.
The Raptors opened as 9-point favorites with a total of 226.5.
- The Warriors have won 8 straight games vs the Raptors (avg. win margin: 9.5 points).
- The Raptors rank sixth in points allowed per game this season (108.1).
- The OVER has hit in 9 of the Raptors’ 11 home games this year.
Warriors vs Raptors Game Center
Should the Warriors be Faded?
That’s a great question but I think they can still cover the spread because of the talent still available to coach Steve Kerr. Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson are still elite playmakers who can’t be discounted. The Warriors have won their last three games with this twosome leading the way. Durant is averaging an absurd 41.6 points per game during that stretch while Klay is putting up 30.1 points.
This is why the Warriors are difficult to cap when Curry and Green are out of the lineup, because their other two all-stars can go off for 40 points and this is the biggest underdog they’ve been this season. Golden State still finds ways to win and has won eight straight games in this matchup by an average win margin of 9.5 points.
I’m backing the Warriors tonight as I think 9 points is wayyy too much and they still have two of the three best players on the floor. I know bettors will remind me of how poor the Warriors’ spread record is in road games recently (0-4 ATS in last four away games) but they were the favorite in those contests. An underdog of 9 points or more for the reigning champs seems like a gift that I’m happy to take.
Raptors’ Scoring Could be a Problem for Golden State
For a team that is first in the NBA standings at 18-4 SU in 22 games, I think the Raptors are getting a little too much respect from oddsmakers tonight. For starters, it took them most of the third and fourth quarters to climb back into the recent game vs Memphis and they’ve only faced five teams with winning records at home this season. They’ve gone 3-2 SU and ATS in those games (wins vs Celtics, Sixers and Pistons) and tend to let teams back into games as evidenced by their 5-6 ATS home record.
Toronto is one of two teams to rank in the top 10 in points scored (117) and points allowed (108.1) with the other team being the Hornets. The Raps’ defense will be put to the test to shut down KD and Klay from the perimeter and so far this season, it’s worked out as they hold teams to 33.4 percent from deep.
I think the Raptors can definitely win this game based on how short-handed the Warriors are tonight but asking them to cover a 9-point spread could be a tall order. Toronto is 2-4 ATS in six home games this season when favored by 9 points or more and with the history of losing eight straight to this team, I can’t endorse the Raptors to cover the spread.
Raptors Home Games Cashing in for OVER Bettors
The total opened at 226.5 and the OVER seems like the smart play if you’re not interested in wagering on the spread. The OVER has hit in nine of the Raptors’ 11 home games this season with an average combined score of 228.7 points per game. Both of these teams rank in the top 10 in points per game and the OVER has hit in five of the last six games in this matchup with an average combined score of 234.5.
My Pick Is…
To take the Warriors to cover the spread. I think these will be the two teams in the NBA Finals this season and even though Curry and Green are out, the Warriors can definitely keep this game within 10 points. Durant, for his career, averages 26.4 points per game vs the Raptors and I think he’ll have the green light to fire away.
