The scoring spree from James Harden and the Houston Rockets invades the Pepsi Center when they take on the Denver Nuggets tonight. The Rockets are being carried by Harden and his scoring exploits but other guys will need to step up if Houston wants to improve on its recent road record at 5-10 SU in the last 15 games. The Nuggets, on the other hand, are a strong 22-4 SU in 26 home games this year but haven’t beaten the Rockets at home since December 2015.
The Nuggets opened as 4.5-point favorites with a total of 227.
- The Rockets are 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS in their last nine games vs the Nuggets.
- The Nuggets are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games at home.
- The OVER has hit in the Nuggets’ last 6 games at home (avg. combined score: 235.1).
Rockets vs Nuggets Game Center
No Other Way to Say It, Rockets Have Dominated This Matchup
It may be the James Harden show in Houston but that hasn’t stopped its slow climb up the Western Conference standings. The Rockets are 29-21 SU in 50 games this season and have weathered injuries throughout the roster while trying to remain competitive. Enter Harden, who is riding a 24-game streak of 30 points or more and took an average of 16.6 three-point attempts in January. Although it’s not my cup of tea from a playing-style standpoint, it has been effective by allowing the Rockets to finish 8-6 SU in 14 games last month.
If bettors are just using historical data to cap this game, then it’s a home run for the Rockets. Houston has won nine straight over the Nuggets dating back to December 2015 with an average win margin of 12.4 points.
I’m likely going to side with the Rockets because they take so many three-pointers that they are in almost any game regardless of the deficit. The Nuggets were 25th in the NBA in allowing 37 percent of three-point attempts to hit on an average of 33 shots per game. If Houston is hitting shots, almost nobody can beat them (obvious opinion alert!).
Nuggets Are Tough to Beat At Home
Sitting at 22-4 SU in 26 home games and only trailing the Warriors by half a game for the Western Conference lead, the Nuggets are showing that they’re not to be trifled with at the Pepsi Center. Denver has gone 15-1 SU in its last 16 home games (12-4 ATS) with the only blemish on its record coming against Golden State.
The absence of Jamal Murray and the health of Gary Harris is troubling for the Nuggets’ chances tonight even though they won their last three games with Murray out of the lineup. Denver shot less than 30 percent from deep in each of those wins and needed a miracle just to pull out a win over the Brow-less Pelicans.
I want to believe the Nuggets will win this game but there’s something nagging at me that won’t allow me to pull the trigger on a Denver cover bet. Maybe it’s Murray, maybe it’s the poor defense in January or maybe it’s the fact that Denver hasn’t beaten this team in over three years. Either way, I’m fading the Nuggets in this one.
Should You take the OVER?
The total opened at 227 and trends are pointing to an OVER. The OVER has hit in Denver’s last six games at home with an average combined score of 235 points per game. When these teams met in Houston early last month, the final combined score was 238 and the Rockets shot 22-for-47 from three-point range, which is where the Nuggets have struggled recently. Factoring in that the OVER has hit in three of the last four games in this matchup, I like another scorefest at the Pepsi Center.
My Pick Is…
To take the Rockets moneyline. I wanted to take them at +4.5 but I’m feeling greedy and want to go after the value. I think the Rockets are the better team overall based on who’s available to play tonight and Houston having Chris Paul back is a huge boost to the Rockets’ backcourt.
