The Houston Rockets have raised the eyebrows of Kobe Bryant and bettors alike over the last few weeks. The Rockets, with NBA leading scorer James Harden on a run of 27 games with at least 30 points, have covered the spread in just two of their last 10 games and are now among the worst bets in the NBA at 24-28-1 ATS. Meanwhile, the Sacramento Kings are spread darlings at 31-21-1 ATS and 19-7-1 ATS at home. The Kings are getting 3 points on home court tonight.
- The Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs the Kings.
- The Kings are 7-0 SU in their last seven games at home (avg. winning margin: 12.1).
- The total has gone OVER in the Rockets’ last three games on the road (avg. combined score: 236.3).
Rockets Are Dealing With Injuries Entering This Game
Clint Capela will miss his 11th game while recovering from ligament damage in his thumb while Eric Gordon is questionable tonight after missing the game in Phoenix on Monday.
Houston is scoring 119.2 points per game over its last 10, seven points above its season average. While that seems like good news, the Rockets are also allowing 119.2 points per game during that same stretch for a 0.0 point differential and the No. 27 scoring defense over that 10-game span.
Despite potentially missing two starters and two of its top five scorers, early money is coming in on Houston to cover and should drive this line higher – which is great news for Kings bettors.
Sacramento Keeps Getting it Done
The Kings are coming off back-to-back home underdog wins against San Antonio and Philadelphia and look for the trifecta tonight when they will undoubtedly call on their No. 7 three-point shooting defense against the outside shooting-heavy Rockets.
Houston is scoring just 42.9 points in the paint per game (28th) while 51.2 percent of the team’s shot attempts are from beyond the arc. This number is by far the highest in the league, almost a full 10 percentage points higher than the Milwaukee Bucks, who take 41.8 percent of their shots from three-point land.
This is excellent news for the Kings as they’ve kept opponents to just a 34.3 percent success rate from outside, and just 24.6 percent in those two home wins over Philadelphia and San Antonio.
My Pick For Tonight
I’m going to monitor this line to get the best number possible for the Kings. I wouldn’t be afraid to even take them on the moneyline tonight but I’m certainly going to lock them in on the spread as a home underdog.
Houston won the first meeting this year by 20 points as a 12-point favorite back in November, so I’m counting on that information to give us an even better number for Sacramento as the day goes on.
