The star power may be absent when the Indiana Pacers take on the Washington Wizards tonight but there are still some decent betting angles in this Eastern Conference matchup. The Pacers have dropped their last two games without Victor Oladipo but have yet to lose three in a row this season. The Wizards, on the other hand, are 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS in their last eight games at home and are 10-8 SU in 18 games this season without John Wall.
The Pacers opened as 3-point favorites (since moved to -1) with a total of 218.5.
- The Wizards are third in the NBA in assists per game in January (27.6).
- The Pacers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on the road.
- The OVER has hit in the Pacers’ last 8 road games (avg. combined score: 232.5).
Wizards Seem To Be Playing More Like A Team Without Wall
Although they’re 10-8 SU in 18 games this season without all-star point guard John Wall, the eye test and the numbers back up the theory that Washington is a more rounded team lately. The Wizards have six players scoring in double figures this month with SG Bradley Beal pacing the team at 27.8 points per game. The Wiz are relying on a more defensive approach on the perimeter without Wall by employing swingmen Trevor Ariza, Otto Porter Jr. and Jeff Green and that has helped Washington cause the most opponent turnovers per game in January. Green has especially been good shooting the three-bomb this month as he’s averaging 42 percent on 5.3 attempts.
Where the Wizards gets killed, though, is in the key as they allow over 50 points per game down low (ranked 22nd) and don’t have one player on their roster averaging more than one block per game. Thomas Bryant and Ian Mahinmi will be tasked with stopping the duo of Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis, who will likely be the focal point of the Pacers offense without Victor Oladipo.
I like the Wizards’ chances to win this game outright because not many teams in the East can put three six-foot-eight forwards on the floor who can also shoot the three. Factoring in that they’re 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games, I’m on the Wiz in this one.
Will the Pacers Continue to Come up Short for Spread Bettors?
With Indiana at 32-17 SU in 49 games, I’m not ready to write off the Pacers but that might be me just being in denial. The Pacers were already a long shot to win the Eastern Conference and now without their best player in Oladipo, they have close to no chance. The Pacers have dropped their last two games without the shooting guard and are 5-6 SU in 11 games this season with the all-star out of the lineup.
Indy will also be without Tyreke Evans for this tilt, taking another scoring option away from its backcourt. The Pacers defense has been subpar this month as they rank in the bottom five in both opponent field-goal and three-point percentage while having a negative point differential.
Although their center Myles Turner is the only player in the league to have more blocks than fouls this season, I’m not sold the Pacers can come into Capital One Arena and steal this game. They’re 1-5 ATS in their last six games on the road and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall. If you want to take the Pacers, I won’t blame you but the stats and trends show that a regression is coming for Indiana.
Pacers Games Have Been Leading to a Ton of OVERS
The total opened at 218.5 and with the Pacers involved, another OVER may be in store. The OVER has hit in the Pacers’ last eight road games with an average combined score of 232.5. Factoring in that the OVER has hit in 11 of Indiana’s last 15 games overall (average combined score: 225.4), take the OVER if you can’t decide on a Sportsbook of this tilt.
My Pick Is…
To take the Wizards moneyline. I know they took an ugly loss to the Cavs last night but they’ve done well on the second game of a back-to-back this season at 6-2 SU and ATS and 3-0 SU without John Wall. The Wizards are a better overall team without their all-star than the Pacers are and will be plenty motivated after taking arguably their worst loss of the season to the Cavaliers.
