The trade deadline may come and go before the Los Angeles Lakers remodel their roster but the mood is expected to be sour before they take on the Boston Celtics. Over half of the Lakers roster is on the trade block and the uncertainty has spilled out onto the court as LA took a 42-point loss to the Pacers on Tuesday and now has to try to win in one of the most difficult places to play in the NBA.
The Celtics opened as 8-point favorites with a total of 224.5.
- The Celtics are 13-1 SU and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games at home.
- The Lakers are 2-6 SU in their last 8 games.
- The total has gone OVER in four of the Lakers’ last five games on the road (avg. combined score: 245.4).
Celtics’ Dominance At Home Cannot be Overstated
It may seem like a fool’s errand to want to take the Celtics to win and cover the spread at home but, man, the recent stats are overwhelmingly in their favor. Boston has gone 13-1 SU and 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games at home with the only loss in that span coming from the Warriors, who had three players score more than 20 points.
Kyrie Irving and Marcus Morris are expected back in the Celtics lineup and Irving especially has been red-hot lately. The point guard has scored 25 or more points in his last eight games while shooting 50 percent from three on 40 attempts.
Considering that Boston’s last 13 wins at home have come by an average margin of 14.8 points and it has held opponents to 107 points per game over its last 15, this line is too low and I expect it to grow to double digits before tipoff, so get on it now.
Lifeless Lakers Should Be Fade Material
You saw the game the Lakers played against the Pacers, right? The one where they got stomped by 42 points, one of the worst losses of LeBron James’ career? Well, the Pacers are nowhere near the level of team that the Celtics are and the Lakers look to be a team in complete disarray. I know it was only one game but there’s no way that the morale can be top-notch when most of the players aren’t certain they’ll be a Laker by the start of next season.
With or without LeBron, the Lakers have been a mess since his injury and the only win they’ve got since his return was against a Clippers team in overtime at home. Playing in a hostile environment like Boston with the historical context and with the whole team on an emotional roller-coaster makes Los Angeles look like a horrible bet.
I know there are trends you can see on our matchup pages that could justify a Lakers cover bet but don’t waste your money. The Lakers, much like the Cavaliers last season, look like a gong show and if you bet them and win, you may be more lucky than good to get paid.
How To Bet the Total
The total opened at 224.5 and trends are pointing to another OVER in Beantown. The OVER has hit in four of the Lakers’ last five games on the road with an average combined score of 245.5. The Lakers are fourth in the NBA in pace and take the sixth-most shots in the league so they’ll likely have to outscore the Celtics to win this game (what a shocker!). The OVER has also hit in six of the Celtics’ last nine games at home so I expect the total to go wayyyy OVER in this one.
My Pick Is…
To ride with the Celtics and bet them to cover the spread. Boston is killing teams at home and I fully expect the Celtics to beat the brains out of the Lakers with the Raptors just in reach for the division lead.
