The Philadelphia 76ers have been one of the worst bets in the NBA over the past two weeks, going 1-5 ATS. That streak includes going 1-3 as the favorite, which is the position they find themselves in tonight at home vs the Clippers where they open as 5-point favorites.
The Clippers were 5.5-point dogs against New Orleans last week, but this is the second-highest spread they’ve faced thus far in 2018. The total opened at 227.5 and has already moved to 229.5/230 depending on where you shop.
- Philadelphia is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games.
- LA is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing Philadelphia.
- The 76ers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games when hosting a West Coast team.
Could the Clippers be UnderValued?
LA comes into this game as an underdog but should it be? The Clippers are in the top 10 in the NBA in all pertinent offensive statistics: scoring, field-goal percentage, three-point percentage, free-throw percentage and rebounding.
The Sixers are the second-best rebounding team in the NBA, but in terms of the rest of the categories listed above, they crack the top 15 in just points (13th) and FT% (13th). Brett Brown’s group is the 23rd-ranked shooting team in the Association.
LA also has the No. 3 shooting defense and the No. 4 three-point defense in the league. The Clips are No. 10 in points against. In fact, they outrank the Sixers in every major defensive category. There’s definitely an argument to be made that the wrong team is the favorite tonight.
Sixers Getting Credit for Their Home Record
Philly is likely getting some love from oddsmakers due to its 4-0 record at home and slightly tougher schedule to this point – but just slightly tougher. Philadelphia has wins over Atlanta, Charlotte, Orlando and Chicago, with Charlotte the only team with a record at .500. The rest of the teams have a combined 6-16 SU record.
The Clippers are 4-3 SU and ATS in 2018 and hold wins over OKC, Houston and Washington – teams with a combined 4-15 record. LA covered the spread in a loss to the Pelicans and lost by single digits to Denver.
My Pick for This Game
I’m going to back the Clippers +5 tonight. A really telling stat for me is the Clippers’ No. 3-ranked FG defense vs a Philadelphia team that’s shooting 43.5 percent from the floor.
The Sixers’ leading offensive rebounder is point guard Ben Simmons at 3.0 per game while center Joel Embiid is hauling down just 2.5 offensive rebounds per game. The big men need to do more in the tough areas for the 76ers.
Those numbers are simply not good enough on the offensive glass for a team that’s shooting as poorly as Philly – especially against an LA team that’s fifth in the league with 37.9 defensive rebounds per game.
