As it was written by the legendary Tupac Shakur, “From Oakland to Sac-Town, the Bay Area and back down … California Love.” Luke Walton’s Los Angeles Lakers have come from Oakland, where they dominated the defending champs, to Sac-Town, where the Kings, expected by pundits to be a pacific doormat, are two games above .500. Due to their low expectations, the Kings have become the best spread bet in the NBA at 21-12-1. Sacramento opens as a four-point favorite with the total at 230.
- LeBron James was injured in the Christmas Day game and is OUT tonight.
- Sacramento has the NBA’s No. 5 scoring offense (115.2 points per game).
- The Kings are 11-4-1 ATS on home court at Golden 1 Center.
Big Test for Lakers Without LeBron, Rondo
LA had a double-digit lead vs Golden State when King James left the game in the third quarter thanks to a groin injury. On cue, the Warriors cut the deficit to one possession and looked to be on their way to stealing a win from the visitors. That’s when Rajon Rondo stepped up and put his young teammates on his back.
Rondo had a double-double off the bench in just his third game back from missing 17 with an injury. Unfortunately for the Lakers and the veteran PG, Rondo has been ruled out of tonight’s game after injuring his finger during Tuesday’s game. JaVale McGee is also questionable for tonight and wasn’t even at the arena in Oakland as he deals with a virus.
Coach Walton will have a very young team on the floor in this game.
Bookmakers Are Still Trying to Figure Out the Kings
Sacramento is a very impressive 13-16 SU and 16-12-1 ATS as an underdog this season. Lines are starting to catch up to them and show a little more respect, with a 6-4 ATS record over their last 10.
Tonight’s game is difficult to handicap in another sense as the Kings will be playing a team missing a few of its biggest names. The Kings are 11-4-1 ATS on home court this season, tied with Denver and Dallas for the fewest spread losses at home.
Don’t Expect Many Shot Clock Violations
I’d set the OVER/UNDER on shot clock violations in this game at about 2.5 seeing that we will be watching two of the top four teams in pace of play go head to head. Sacramento is averaging 105.4 possessions per game with the Lakers averaging 103.9.
It’s no surprise, then, that the Kings have hit the OVER in 23 of their 44 games to this point. LA’s O/U stats aren’t as staggering, but that’s due to them routinely having totals set at 230 and higher.
Ironically, the first meeting of the season between these clubs ended in a 101-86 victory for the Lakers, a full 50 points UNDER the closing total of 237.
My Best Bet for This Game
Despite the result of the first game between these teams, I think tonight’s game goes OVER 230 points and here’s why:
Without the veteran presence of Rondo and James on the court for LA, their No. 17 scoring offense is likely to give up more than its average 111 points due to difficulties in defensive structure.
Sacramento already boasts the No. 5 scoring offense in the Association, but they have a hard time keeping points out of their own basket, with the No. 28 scoring defense.
Additionally, the Kings are the worst defensive rebounding team in the league, and while some of that is attributed to fewer rebounds being available on their end of the floor due to opponents converting 47 percent of their shots, it’s still something that can be exploited by the shot-happy Lakers, the No. 9 offensive rebounding team in the league.
