The Miami Heat have covered the spread in 20 of their 31 road games this season, making them the most reliable road spread bet in the Association. The Heat are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games in this spot, including 4-1 in the last five. They are a 3-point dog in Charlotte tonight against a Hornets team that is just 3-8 SU and 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games. The total for this game opened at 218 points.
Standout Stats
- Charlotte is 2-0 SU and ATS vs Miami this year, winning 113-112 in Miami on October 20 and 125-113 in Charlotte on October 30. They play again on March 17 in South Beach. Both games went OVER tonight’s total of 218.
- Miami is scoring 113.4 points per game since the all-star break. That’s 8.3 points per game higher than their average in the first half. At the same time, Charlotte is allowing 116 points per game since the break, 4.7 points more than in the first half.
- Miami is shooting 38 percent from beyond the arc since the break (eighth). The Hornets have the No. 21 shooting defense in the NBA during the same stretch at 46.9 percent.
- The OVER has hit in six of Miami’s last eight games with an average combined score of 225.4 while the total has gone OVER in six of the Hornets’ last seven home games with an average combined score of 232.6. This further lends to the trend of both teams playing high-scoring games lately.
- Nine of Miami’s 12 division games have gone OVER the total while eight of Charlotte’s 11 games have gone OVER the total.
- The Hornets are 3-6 SU and ATS in their nine home games as a favorite of 3 or fewer points. Miami is 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in its last five games as a road dog of 3 points or less.
- Miami is one of two teams shooting below 70 percent on free throws (the Lakers are the other). Charlotte commits the third-fewest personal fouls in the league (19.4 per game).
- The Heat are just 2-10 ATS vs the Southeast Division.
My Best Bet for Heat vs Hornets
Miami OVER 107.5
Miami’s team total is set at 107.5 and based on the information presented above, I think that’s too low. Miami has scored more than 107.5 points in each of its last five games, scoring an average of 119.2 points per game.
Charlotte is allowing 111.7 points per game during the course of the year, 109 points per game at home and 112.4 points per game during its last 15 games. All of these numbers are higher than Miami’s team total tonight.
