The Dallas Mavericks (24-22 SU, 15-29-2 ATS) and Miami Heat (25-21, 18-25-3) do battle at American Airlines Center on Friday as the hosts look to snap a three-game skid. Dallas opened as the 1.5-point home favorite with the total set at 218 points.
Despite Dallas’ edge according to the oddsmakers, Miami has actually won 15 of the last 20 meetings between the two teams. Meanwhile, the OVER is 5-2 in Dallas’ last seven contests and 4-2 in the last six games between these teams.
Latest Betting Notes: Heat
The Heat picked up a big win last time out, defeating the New Orleans Pelicans 124-98 on Wednesday. Bam Adebayo scored 26 points to lead the way while six others finished in double digits in a well-rounded win for the Heat. CJ McCollum topped New Orleans with just 21 points.
After a pretty sluggish start to the season, the Heat have seemed to finally find their rhythm, winning nine of their last 13 contests since Christmas. Adebayo has stepped up in a big way, leading the team with 22.8 points per game in January, while team defense has also been huge – the Heat are allowing just 103.2 points per game this month.
Latest Betting Notes: Mavericks
The Mavs suffered their third straight loss on Wednesday as they fell 130-122 to the Atlanta Hawks. Luka Doncic returned to the lineup to lead the team with 30 points while Christian Wood (22 points) and Spencer Dinwiddie (20 points) each had 20-plus in a losing effort. To make matters worse, Wood fractured his thumb in the loss and is out indefinitely.
Defensive woes continue to haunt the Mavericks, who have surrendered an average of 124.4 points over their last eight games. Unsurprisingly, Dallas has won just two of those contests.
Doncic sat out Sunday’s game but returned on Wednesday to record his 10th performance of 30-plus points in his last 12 appearances – but even that hasn’t been enough to overcome the team’s defensive issues.
Heat Player Prop: Adebayo OVER 24 Points (+114)
Adebayo has turned up the heat over the last few weeks and has arguably been Miami’s most consistent scorer since right around Christmas. Adebayo rang in the new year in style, scoring 30-plus points in three straight games from December 31 to January 4, and has continued to carry that momentum forward.
The center has scored 20-plus points in four straight games and in 12 of his last 14 outings, so he’ll have a good shot at hitting the OVER against a Mavericks defense that’s been absolutely abysmal.
Mavericks Player Prop: Dinwiddie OVER 21 Points (+188)
Dinwiddie has been quietly producing even during the Mavericks’ recent skid. The point guard has scored at least 20 points in four of his last six contests and is averaging 18.3 points per game in January. He’s also coming off an impressive weekend, scoring 28 and 25 points against the Portland Trail Blazers in a back-to-back set.
If the Mavs are going to outscore their porous defense and snap their losing streak, they’ll likely need Dinwiddie to hit the OVER on Friday.
