The total opens at 207.5 for tonight’s game between the Heat and Pistons and is the second-highest total in this matchup since April 23, 1995. The total in their first meeting this year was a lofty 219.5 and both teams scored well above their season averages in a 120-115 Miami victory. Detroit opens as a 1.5-point favorite at Little Sportsbook Arena despite losing seven of its last 10 games.
- The total has gone OVER in four of the Heat’s last five games vs the Pistons (avg. combined score: 216.8).
- The total has gone OVER in eight of the Heat’s last 11 games (avg. combined score: 210.18).
- The total has gone UNDER in four of the Pistons’ last five games (avg. combined score: 213.8).
It’s Not Just Low Totals That These Teams Have In Common
Miami and Detroit are two of the three worst field-goal shooting teams in the league. Miami enters this game at No. 28 (44 percent) while Detroit is hot … OK, maybe not “hot”… on its heels at No. 29 (43.5 percent).
Consequently, the Pistons are sporting the No. 24 scoring offense (106.9 points per game) while Miami is No. 25 with 106.2 points per game. These teams are both also in the top half of the league in scoring defense, Miami at No. 5 and Detroit at No. 13.
This Game Will Be Played at a Low Pace
Well, at least by basketball terms anyhow. The NBA is a fast-paced, high-energy league, but some teams use a lot less of the shot clock than others, something that the league measures as “pace” or possessions per game.
Both Miami and Detroit are among the bottom 10 teams in the league in terms of pace, with both teams having around 99.5 possessions per game. This is another reason why we see such low totals when these teams hook up.
My Best Bet for Tonight
I’m going to play OVER 207.5 points in this game. The average combined score in Miami’s last 11 games is 210.2 and is 213.8 for the Pistons in their last five. Four of the last five games in this matchup have also finished OVER 207.5.
I think the historical totals are playing a factor in this total from the oddsmakers and this year’s versions of these squads, while not offensive juggernauts, are routinely playing games above this total, including both teams’ January averages being above 207.5.
