A losing streak will come to an end as both teams limp into this game with the Miami Heat looking to put a stop to their three-game slide, while the Detroit Pistons have dropped four in a row. The Heat took three of the four meetings in last year’s season series, but are 5-point underdogs in tonight’s contest with the total Sportsbook at 219.5 points.
- The total has gone UNDER in four of the Pistons’ last five games at home (avg. combined score: 217.0).
- The Heat are 2-6 SU and ATS in their last eight games on the road vs the Pistons.
- The Pistons are 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games vs teams with losing records.
Detroit struggling to get shots to fall
The Pistons got off to a great start to the season by winning their first four games but have since fallen off a cliff, going 0-4 in their last four games and losing by an average of 8.5 points. One of the biggest issues for Detroit is its shooting percentage as the Pistons are hitting just 42.9 percent of their shots, which is fifth-worst in the league. Much of this could be attributed to their troubles moving the ball, as they’re averaging a league-low 18.8 assists per game and bad ball movement leads to low-percentage shots.
Defensively, the Pistons allow the 10th-fewest shot attempts per game and rank seventh in the league in rebounding and fifth in offensive rebounds per game. Additionally, they have done a great job transitioning to defense as they have limited their opponents to an average of 10 fast-break points per game, which is the second-fewest in the NBA – typical from a Dwane Casey-coached team.
Miami’s leaning on the long ball
The Heat wrap up their three-game road swing looking to avoid a complete loss of a trip with a win tonight. Miami has been bitten by the injury bug recently with four players dealing with injuries – most notably starting point guard Goran Dragic and starting center Hassan Whiteside. The plan of attack for the Heat is shooting from the perimeter as they average the eighth-most three-point attempts per game at 34.6 and are hitting 36.1 percent of those shots, which is 10th-best in the league.
Much like their counterparts, the Heat do a good job ripping boards, as they average 48.8 rebounds per game, which is fifth-best in the NBA. But without Whiteside, expect this number to drop. One area of concern is turnovers. Miami is averaging 16 per game, the seventh-most in the league, and is allowing 20 points per game off of those turnovers, fourth-most in the NBA.
Should you be on the UNDER tonight?
Trends point to the UNDER between Miami and Detroit and Sportsbook has tonight’s total Sportsbook at 219.5 points. These two teams haven’t gone OVER 219 points in any of their last 62 meetings dating back to 1999. Meanwhile, the total has gone UNDER in three of Detroit’s four home games this season with an average combined score of 219.75, with the OVER coming in an overtime contest with Philadelphia in which the teams combined for 265 points.
However, it should be noted that three of Miami’s four road matches have gone OVER with an average combined score of 227.25. Detroit allows the third-fewest three-pointers per game, while Miami uses this approach to win games, which could definitely keep this contest low-scoring, and you should be on the UNDER.
My take on Miami vs Detroit
I like the UNDER 219.5 points in tonight’s game. Miami and Detroit haven’t gone OVER 219.5 points in a game since November 2, 1999 – a span of 62 games. Meanwhile, the Heat are dealing with a lot of injuries and they rely on the three-point shot, while the Pistons allow the eighth-fewest three-pointers per game at 9.8.
Additionally, Detroit is having a difficult time shooting the ball, hitting just 42.9 percent of its shots, which is the fifth-worst rate in the league. Lastly, both teams do a good job limiting the number of shots from their opponents with the Pistons allowing an average of 87 attempts per game, which is 10th-fewest, and the Heat allowing the 16th-fewest.
