The Miami Heat make their first trip north of the border this season to tip off against the Toronto Raptors at the Scotiabank Arena. Miami ended its three-game losing slide on Friday, while Toronto aims to extend its four-game winning streak and the Raptors are an 11.5-point favorite with the total Sportsbook at 218 points.
- The total has gone OVER in 13 of Toronto’s last 20 games.
- Miami is 2-6 SU and ATS in its last eight games.
- The total has gone OVER in five of Miami’s last seven road games.
Heat are struggling to shoot the ball
Miami is doing its best to pull out of its recent slump, dropping six of its last eight games with an average losing margin of 10. It is simply just having a hard time getting shots to fall as it has the second-lowest shooting percentage in the NBA at 43.5 and that slightly increases to 43.9 in road games. It doesn’t help either that the Heat are middle of the league for shot attempts per game at 89.6. The Heat are good at getting to the free-throw line, though, drawing the eighth-most personal fouls per game at 23.9 and they draw the second-most on the road at 24.9.
However, they aren’t doing themselves any good as they are shooting just 70.9 percent from the charity stripe which is the third-worst in the league. Miami does dominate in the paint on both sides of the ball, averaging a league-leading 6.8 blocks per game with center Hassan Whiteside averaging 3.12 blocks himself. It also grabs the second-most rebounds per game, including the seventh-most offensive boards which could be a way to grab extra chances against Toronto which allows the most offensive rebounds at the Scotiabank Arena.
Raptors look to put together a streak at home
Toronto has a remarkable 8-2 record at the Scotiabank Arena this season, but is just 1-2 in its last three there and is looking for two wins a row for the first time since late October. The Raptors are a great shooting team, hitting 48.7 percent of their shots helping them average the fourth-most points per game in the league at 116.3. They strike a good balance between shooting the treys and working the ball inside, averaging the eighth-most three-point attempts per game hitting 11.5 per game which is tied for eighth-most, but only shoot 34.3 percent from beyond the arc which ranks 19th in the association.
Toronto is a very active team that works really well as a unit defensively, as it has limited opponents to just a 44.1 shooting percentage which is the third-lowest in the league and hold its foes to a 48.3 shooting percentage inside the arc at home which fifth-lowest. An interesting battle in this game will come around the net as the Raptors average the fifth-most points in the paint per game at 53.4, but the Heat allow the fifth-fewest points in the paint per game at 44.9, the Raps may need to be more aggressive on the three-ball.
OVER Trending in tonight’s game
There are signs pointing toward an OVER in tonight’s game and Sportsbook has the total Sportsbook at 218 points. Toronto has gone OVER in 13 of its 20 games this season with an average combined score of 223.8, including going OVER in eight of its 10 homes games. Meanwhile, Miami has gone OVER in five of its last seven road games with an average combined score of 222.14. There’s going to be a battle around the rim with Hassan Whiteside trying to shut down any of the Raptors’ offense on the inside, however, Toronto averages the eighth-most triples per game at 11.5 which moves to 12.3 at home and teams are shooting 36.5 percent from beyond the arc vs Miami which is the seventh-highest percentage in the NBA.
My take on Miami vs Toronto
I like the Toronto to cover the 11.5-point spread. The Raptors have been punishing teams this season, jumping out to a 16-4 record with an average winning margin of 13.75 with 10 of those wins by 12 or more points. I think that Toronto’s athleticism will be able to exploit a bit of a slower Miami team, Sportsbook lanes to the rim, while also taking advantage of clean looks beyond the arc. The Raptors allow the sixth-fewest points per game in the league while scoring the fourth-most, conversely, the Heat are scoring the 11th-fewest ppg but allow the 11th-fewest ppg. Toronto is 3-1 ATS during its ongoing four-game winning streak with an average winning margin of 19.25.
