The Sixers are one of the league’s toughest teams at home, and they’re slight underdogs against the NBA’s top team on Christmas Day. What should be more appealing to bettors, however, is that each of the last five matchups has gone OVER — and there’s a low Sportsbook total.
- Date/Time: December 25, 2:30 p.m. ET
- Arena: Wells Fargo Center
- TV Coverage: ABC
- Sportsbook Odds: Milwaukee -3 | O/U 222.5
- Bucks vs 76ers Matchup Report
Sportsbook Odds Analysis
The 76ers are 15-2 at home this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 9.7 points per game. But as they’re facing the NBA’s top team in Milwaukee, which has won seven of its last nine games in Philadelphia, the Sixers opened as 3-point underdogs. The total opened at 222.5 points, due in part to both teams being strong defensively, but it seems a little low considering the Bucks have the league’s top offense, and the OVER has hit in each of the last five matchups between these clubs.
Milwaukee News & Notes
The Bucks stand alone with the NBA’s best record and they’re coming into Christmas as hot as any team in recent memory.
They’ve won 21 of their last 22 games and their 12-2 SU record on the road is the best in the NBA. While they’re facing a 76ers team that is one of the league’s best on its home court this season, the Bucks have actually won seven of their last nine games SU at Philadelphia.
While reigning MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo is basically unstoppable, he’s averaging 24.7 points over his last three games — well below his season average. The Bucks have still won all three contests, however, as Milwaukee’s secondary scoring has stepped up: George Hill has averaged 16 points, Brook Lopez 13.7 points and Wesley Matthews 12.7 points, all over their season averages.
Milwaukee will need all of its offensive options on call against Philadelphia, which has the league’s third-best scoring defense, but the Bucks seem to have a formula for success against the Sixers, as they’re 6-3 ATS in their last nine matchups.
Philadelphia News & Notes
After a disappointing three-game losing streak, which included their first two home losses of the season, the 76ers have rebounded with two dominant wins heading into a Christmas Day showdown with the NBA’s top team.
Philadelphia beat up on the Pistons and Wizards, winning by an average of 16.5 points. It has won 15 of its last 20 games, led by superstar Joel Embiid, who’s averaging 23.0 points and 12.6 rebounds on the season, while Tobias Harris and Ben Simmons have both picked up their scoring in December.
The Sixers’ biggest advantages over opponents are a stifling defense and a strong presence on the boards – they lead the NBA in rebounding differential. But that advantage is almost neutralized by the Bucks, who possess the NBA’s highest-scoring offense and are second in rebounding margin.
It’s a big reason why Philly is 4-6 SU and ATS in its last 10 games against Milwaukee, but with a showtime game on Christmas Day, expect the Sixers to be up for the challenge.
Betting Pick: OVER 222.5
The total has gone OVER in each of the last five games between these teams and with Milwaukee having the league’s top offense and Philadelphia scoring more lately, I think the OVER hits for a sixth straight matchup.
- The OVER is 6-1 in Philadelphia’s last 7 games.
- Milwaukee is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games.
- Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games.
