In what could end up being the matchup for the Eastern Conference crown, the Milwaukee Bucks will look to make another statement when they take the court vs the Toronto Raptors tonight. The Bucks lead the East at 36-13 SU in 49 games and have won their last two games at Scotiabank Arena. On the flip side, the Raptors are an excellent 21-4 SU in 25 home games this season and haven’t lost at home since the last time they hosted the Bucks.
The Raptors opened as 2.5-point favorites (since moved to -3) with a total of 229 (since moved to 230).
- The Raptors are 10-0 SU in their last 10 games at home (avg. winning margin: 11.3).
- The Bucks are 6th in the NBA in points allowed per game in January (106.7).
- The OVER has hit in 5 of the last 6 games in this matchup (avg. combined score: 235.5).
Will the Raptors Continue to be Dominant at Home?
At 21-4 SU in 25 home games, it’s safe to say the Raptors take care of their home floor. Those four losses were to the Pistons, Nuggets, Pelicans and Bucks with only one of those losses by more than five points (Pelicans). Toronto has won 10 straight at Scotiabank Center by an average margin of 11.3 points and their last loss in the Six was coincidentally to the Bucks on December 9.
The Raps will obviously miss Jonas Valanciunas for this tilt because he could provide serviceable defense against Brook Lopez, who has had a career resurgence in Milwaukee. Everyone else on Toronto’s roster is expected to be in the lineup and a full defensive effort will be required to stop the Bucks’ attack because the Raptors are allowing 112.7 points per game in January, which ranks 21st in the NBA this month.
I’m riding with the Raptors tonight because at this spread, it might as well be a pick’em and I typically side with the home team in that instance. I tend to ignore storylines like “payback” and revenge games but Toronto knows that it will likely see the Bucks again in the playoffs and tiebreakers are in play for the seeding.
Bucks’ Scoring Is Near Impossible to Stop
Ranking second in the NBA in points scored per game and with the entire starting lineup averaging double figures, the Bucks’ progression into becoming a matchup nightmare has become a reality. Giannis Antetokounmpo’s MVP candidacy may have cooled off given how James Harden is balling out but make no mistake about it, the Greek Freak is a problem for opposing defenses.
Giannis was already making a living in the paint as he averages 54 percent from the field but his three-point shot has started to kick in lately. In January, he’s averaging 31 percent from three on 2.5 attempts and if he figures out that part of his game, the Raptors and the league are in trouble. That’s why when you see that the Bucks are second in the NBA in scoring at 117.2 points per game and are holding teams to only 106.7 in January, bettors can’t be faulted for wanting to back Milwaukee.
I, however, am not confident they can win because in January, they rank in the bottom 10 in turnovers per game (16.7) and their shooting percentages have dropped significantly in both field goals and three-pointers. Those may just be blips on the radar but those troubling signs have me doubtful they will win again in Toronto.
OVER ALERT
The total opened at 229 (since moved to 230) and when these teams take the court against each other, shootouts tend to follow. The OVER has hit in five of the last six games in this matchup with an average combined score of 235.5 points. Both of these teams rank in the top 10 in points per game this season and as mentioned, the Raptors are giving up over 112 points per game this month.
My Pick Is…
To take the Raptors to win and cover the spread. I know the Bucks have had their number but the Raptors are soooo good at home that there’s only a couple of teams that I think can go into Scotiabank Center and win regularly and the Bucks aren’t one of them.
With a full roster, I expect the Raptors to key in on Brook Lopez and make the Bucks beat them in the half court. At -3, it might as well be a pick’em from a spread standpoint so give me the extra juice for Toronto.
