It’s not a sight seen very often at Scotiabank Centre but the Toronto Raptors are home underdogs for Game 4 vs the Milwaukee Bucks. The Raptors haven’t been a home dog since March 2018 and are 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS in eight home playoff games this year. They needed double overtime just to edge the Bucks in Game 3 and opened as 2.5-point dogs with a total of 216.
Standout Stats
- Game 3 saw the Raptors finally have a decent game from behind the arc. They shot 17-for-45 from three-point range (37.8 percent) and converted 80.8 percent of their free throws. The charity stripe was not as kind for the Bucks as they shot 66.7 percent on 33 attempts, with Giannis Antetokounmpo going 2-for-7. In the playoffs, Giannis is averaging 66.2 percent on 11.6 attempts per game from the free-throw line.
- Kawhi Leonard did it all in Game 3 as he scored 35 points while playing lockdown defense on Antetokounmpo. Giannis may have only scored 12 points but he grabbed an insane 23 rebounds while blocking four shots.
- The Bucks have been one of the worst first-quarter bets in the playoffs this year as they’re 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games with the lone win coming in Game 2 in Milwaukee. The Raptors, on the other hand, are 3-1 ATS for the first-quarter spread over their last four games.
- The Bucks’ depth could prove to be a huge asset for Game 4 after most of the Raptors’ starters had to play 45 or more minutes in double overtime. The Bucks got 54 points from their bench players in Game 3 and Milwaukee’s bench has outscored Toronto’s bench 130-78 through three games.
- The Raptors spread the scoring around in Game 3, which is likely why they outlasted the Bucks for the victory. Toronto had five players score in double figures, but in Game 1 and 2, only three players cracked double digits.
- The Bucks have controlled the paint for most of this series. They’ve outscored the Raptors 140-108 down low through three games while outpacing them 99-70 on the fast break.
- One of the key reasons why the Bucks have crushed teams in the postseason is their ability to get to the rim. They’re third in the playoffs with an average of 27.4 free-throw attempts per game and they also have a +11.8 point differential in points in the paint.
- The OVER has hit in seven of the last 10 games in this matchup (average combined score: 227.6) and has hit in four of the Bucks’ five road playoff games (227.2), although Game 3 did require double overtime to do so.
My Best Bet for Bucks vs Raptors
Bucks -2.5
It’s over, Raptors fans. We saw what the best effort is from Toronto and it still required double overtime and Giannis Antetokounmpo to play his worst game of the season just to edge the Bucks.
Milwaukee is crushing Toronto in nearly every offensive category and the Bucks’ depth will likely prove to be too strong to overcome after a marathon type of game less than 48 hours ago. If you’re not liking the spread, the OVER may be a decent alternative with it hitting in seven of the last 10 games in this matchup.
