After a wonky home game that saw the Oklahoma City Thunder drop an ugly one to the Wizards, they’ll look to bounce back when they host the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight. The Thunder are 1.5 games back of the Nuggets for the best record in the Western Conference but got upset by the T-Wolves when they hosted them just over two weeks ago. Minnesota may have a different look tonight with the firing of head coach Tom Thibodeau and has gone 15-12 SU in 27 games since the Jimmy Butler trade.
- The Thunder are 13-3 SU and 10-6 ATS in their last 16 games at home.
- The Timberwolves are 5-15 SU in 20 road games this season.
- The UNDER has hit in 5 of the Thunder’s last 6 games.
Timberwolves vs Thunder Game Center
Thunder Have Been A Top-Three Team Since November
Since dropping the Sportsbook four games of the season, the Thunder have been on an absolute tear through NBA teams. OKC has gone 25-10 SU in 35 games since that dismal start and one of the main reasons has been the play of Paul George. PG-13 is gunning for First Team All-NBA given how he’s balling out as the eighth-year forward is averaging career highs across the board with 26.8 points, eight rebounds and four assists per game while shooting 38 percent from three-point range.
Defensively, the Thunder are also among the best teams in the league as they rank fifth in points allowed per game, lead the league in forced turnovers and are tied for third in point differential (+5.8). That and how George is balling out have been the main factors for why the Thunder are 13-3 SU and 10-6 ATS in their last 16 games at home.
I like the Thunder to come out firing and win by eight or more tonight because they’re 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS in eight home games this season when favored by that margin. That being said, they have failed to cover in the last five games in this matchup so I would understand why certain bettors may steer clear.
New Head Coach Could Be Huge for T-Wolves
The fact that I have heirlooms older than the new head coach of the Minnesota Timberwolves could either be a huge advantage for Minny or classify me as a hoarder. Either way, the T-Wolves are taking a gamble with the 32-year-old Ryan Saunders as the interim coach as he’s the youngest coach in the NBA and the son of the former coach, Flip Saunders.
To be fair, I’m unsure what type of defensive mechanisms he’ll take from Thibodeau’s system but he has been gearing the offense for Minny since 2014. Speaking of 14, coincidentally the Timberwolves rank 14th in both points scored and points allowed per game and Saunders will need to get creative with Derrick Rose expected to be out tonight. Rose is scoring 18.9 points per game so Karl-Anthony Towns will need to step up and when he scores 25 points or more, the T-Wolves are 7-4 SU in 11 games since the Jimmy Butler trade.
I do like the Timberwolves to cover tonight and expect them to play hard with a new coach on board while the “new coach” smell is still fresh. It’s also worth noting Minnesota is 4-2 ATS in its last six games when playing at Chesapeake Energy Arena.
You Can't Spell Thunder Without UNDER
The total opened at 226 (since moved to 227) and I like the UNDER to come through for totals bettors. The UNDER has hit in five of the Thunder’s last six games with an average combined score of 215.5. In the Thunder’s last 18 games, the final combined score has only gone over 227 points three times.
My Pick Is…
To take the UNDER. I think the Thunder’s defense will come to play and 227 points just seems like too many points to give based on their recent track record.
