The Toronto Raptors aim to win their fifth game in a row but will face a stiff test with the Minnesota Timberwolves in the T-Dot tonight. The Raptors have won all three home games this season by an average margin of 15 points while the T-Wolves have dropped both of their road games by a combined eight points.
The Raptors opened as 8-point favorites with the total at 228.
- The Raptors are 14-0 SU and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games when hosting the Timberwolves.
- The Timberwolves rank 26th in rebounds per game (41.5).
- The total has gone OVER in six of the Timberwolves’ last seven games vs the Raptors.
Timberwolves vs Raptors Game Center
Raptors Have Owned the T-Wolves in the Six
Even the most optimistic of Raptors backers may not have been able to predict how seamlessly Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green have fit into Toronto’s offense. The Spurs’ former duo along with Kyle Lowry has been the Raptors’ version of a Big Three, combining to average over 53 points per game while playing suffocating defense on the perimeter. The Raps are only allowing 30 attempts from three-point range while holding the opposition to a shooting percentage of less than 35 from deep.
This is why tonight will be an interesting case study to see if Leonard and Green can shut down Jimmy Butler because the four-time all-star is averaging 25.3 points per game and played lockdown defense on Victor Oladipo in a victory over the Pacers. If the Raptors can keep him contained and continue to play solid defense, the 8-point spread doesn’t seem as daunting when deciding to back them. Toronto has won 14 straight games at home when hosting Minnesota while going 10-4 ATS in those games with an average win margin of 10.2 points.
T-Wolves Getting Owned on the Glass
The black cloud that hung over the Timberwolves prior to the start of the season hasn’t completely engulfed the team but you can see some sour notes when they’re on the floor together. Minnesota has dropped both of its road games this season and although Jimmy Butler didn’t play in the last game vs the Mavericks, the battle down low is a cause for concern for the young Wolves.
Minny currently ranks 26th in rebounds per game and Karl-Anthony Towns has only managed 14 total rebounds in the two road losses. As the primary center at seven feet tall, it’s a pretty glaring stat for one of the players touted as the new generation of big men in the NBA. If the Timberwolves want any shot at becoming a legit contender in the Western Conference, they will need Towns to take the next step in his development and dominate centers like Serge Ibaka and Jonas Valanciunas.
OVER Bettors Cashing in when these Teams Take the Court
The total opened at 228 and while the OVER has hit in six of the last seven games in this matchup, I would recommend the UNDER in this tilt. The main reason is the average combined score in those games was 221.7 and the total only went OVER 225.5 in two of those games. I expect this to be a dogfight defensively and would wait till closer to tipoff as I expect the total to go up.
My Pick is….
To take the UNDER. I want to take the Raptors spread but -8 is a bit high for me vs a T-Wolves squad that is more competitive than the stats let on. They only lost their two road games by a combined eight points and I think this game will come down to the final few possessions to determine a Sportsbook.
