The New Orleans Pelicans limp into Oklahoma City tonight after dropping a 98-94 decision at home to the Pistons last night. Anthony Davis is still out and Nikola Mirotic and E’Twaun Moore are both questionable for the Pels. With that, the Thunder open as an 11.5-point favorite with the total at 237.5.
- The UNDER has hit in both Pelicans games since Davis’ injury.
- Oklahoma City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against New Orleans.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans’ last 6 games.
Pelicans vs Thunder Game Center
Injuries Adding Up for New Orleans
After the Pelicans lost Anthony Davis to a finger injury earlier this week, Nikola Mirotic left Wednesday’s game with a calf strain and is questionable for tonight. Additionally, E’Twaun Moore has been playing through injuries and Alvin Gentry indicated after the game last night that Moore had a “good chance” of being rested tonight on the back-to-back.
In the event that all three of these guys are out of the lineup, New Orleans would be without three of its top five scorers, taking 58.4 points out of the lineup heading into a game with the No. 3 team in the conference.
The Pelicans have the No. 2 road scoring offense in the league, but that won’t be the case tonight.
OKC Has Won Three Straight
Coming off a stretch that saw them lose five out of six games, the Thunder have won their last three games both straight up and against the spread.
January has been a month of OVERs for the Thunder as they’ve had both their highest-scoring month and their worst defensive month of the season. Seven of the last eight games the Thunder have played have gone OVER the closing total, however, 237.5 would be their highest total of the year.
I do expect that number to come down as roster news becomes concrete later in the day.
My Bet For Tonight
I’ve locked in UNDER 237.5 points for this game, although it has been taken off the board at some books. I would be comfortable taking the UNDER as low as 225.
I have no doubt that OKC will get its points in this one, however, the average combined score in New Orleans’ last two games is below 200. When you take a potential 58.4 points out of the Pelicans lineup, they will be hard pressed to make it up.
In fact, even with Davis in the lineup, three of the last four games in this matchup have gone UNDER the total with an average combined score of 224.3.
