The New Orleans Pelicans continue their four-game road swing as they make a stop at the Golden 1 Center to tip off against the Sacramento Kings. These two clubs played their second games of the season against each other at the Smoothie King Center. New Orleans flexed its muscles that game en route to a 149-129 triumph and it is a one-point favorite in tonight’s game with the total Sportsbook at 239 points.
- The total has gone OVER in 14 of Sacramento’s last 18 games.
- Sacramento is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games.
- New Orleans scores the second-most points per game in the NBA this season. (116.3)
New Orleans vs Sacramento Game Center
Pelicans are horrendous on the road
New Orleans has been on quite the slump recently, having won just five games since Nov. 21, holding a record of 5-11 SU and having not won two games in a row over that span. The Pelicans now back into this contest on a three-game losing slide, and their road record this year doesn’t suggest they are going to pull out of that skid tonight. They are 4-13 SU away from home this year with an average losing margin of 8.08. On the season, the Pelicans score the second-most points per game in the NBA at 116.3, however, when they hit the road, that drops to 112.8 ppg, which is still sixth in the association.
Meanwhile, they are giving up an average of 115.8 ppg in away games, which is only 0.6 more ppg than their season average but it is eighth-most in the league. Additionally, on the road, New Orleans creates the sixth-fewest turnovers per game at 12.9, which leads to plenty of scoring for the opposition as they average 92.1 shots from the floor per game, the fourth-most in the NBA. It all boils down to an emphasis on offense but not caring about defense and that is on full display in their play around the rim, the Pelicans score the most points in the paint per game at 57.5, but also allow the seventh-most PITP at 51.3, teams should have a much harder time scoring down low against Anthony Davis.
Kings look to head into Christmas on a winning note
Sacramento has just been humming along recently, winning seven of its last 11 games since the calendar flipped to December and it is looking for a second win a row for an early Christmas gift. The Kings are one of the few teams in the NBA that performs better on the road than they do at home as in away games they lead the league with 117 points per game, but at the Golden 1 Center, they average 112.5 points per game which ranks 17th in the association. On defense, they perform slightly better, surrendering two points fewer at home than on the road, but it’s still nothing to write home about as in front of its own fans they give up 115.4 ppg which is the third-most in the league.
Overall, Sacramento uses its speed and athleticism to play an up-tempo style as it has the second-highest pace of play in the NBA and it is constantly in its opponents face which has led to it creating the fourth-most turnovers per game. Additionally, they lead the league in points off of turnovers at 21.2 and fastbreak points at 22.3, not good for a Pelicans team that allows the eighth-most fastbreak points per game and the 12th-most points off turnovers.
Is the OVER the bet to make?
This game features two of the top-five scoring teams in the NBA and Sportsbook has the total Sportsbook at 239 points. Sacramento and New Orleans met in mid-October and played to a combined score of 278. Meanwhile, the Kings have gone OVER in 14 of their last 18 games with an average combined score of 231.72, going OVER 239 points in five of those games. Conversely, the Pelicans are slowly becoming UNDER machines from their high totals, having gone UNDER in nine of their last 12 games and have only gone OVER 239 points once in their last 15 games. The total is going to be a tough one to get to at 239 points but if any two teams could do its these two and I think the OVER will come through.
My take on New Orleans vs Sacramento
I like the OVER 239 points in tonight’s game. Although New Orleans has been strong UNDER plays recently, I think the weak defense of Sacramento will get it back on track and I don’t see any reason why it doesn’t score 125 or more points alone. The Kings allow the second-most points in the paint per game at 52.5 and I expect Davis and the Pelicans to just go to town under the rim. Meanwhile, the Pelicans have had their difficulties with ball possession and the Kings score the most points off turnovers and fastbreaks. Tonight’s game also features the second and fourth-fastest teams as far as pace of play goes and I think their strengths are their opponents’ weaknesses and the OVER will hit.
