The New Orleans Pelicans aren’t an underdog of 10 points or more very often, but when they are, they’re a perfect 7-0 ATS since December 2017 – including covering all four times this season.
Despite that, early betting action was on their opponents tonight, the Utah Jazz, who opened as a 9-point favorite only to see the spread climb to 10.5 or 11 early in the day. The total opened at 230 with early action coming in on the UNDER.
Standout Stats
- Both of these teams have been outstanding bets recently with New Orleans going 6-1 ATS in its last seven games while Utah is 6-2 ATS in its last eight.
- The Jazz have dominated this matchup, going 8-2 SU and 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these clubs, including winning 132-111 as 6-point road faves in Louisiana on October 27 in a game that Anthony Davis missed.
- Speaking of Davis, he is questionable to play tonight.
- New Orleans has the No. 1 pace rating since the break at 109.4 possessions per game. Utah is 13th at 102.9. Utah is No. 4 at 121.8 points per game and New Orleans is No. 5 at 119.7 points per game in the same stretch.
- The total has gone OVER in five of the last six games between these teams, in five of the Pelicans’ last seven games and in five of Utah’s last seven home games. Those stats combined with the offense these teams have been putting up since the break puts the 229 total in jeopardy.
- Utah is 9-1 SU and 5-4-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite this season, including 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in February. New Orleans is 4-0 ATS as a double-digit dog this season – Anthony Davis did not play in any of those games.
- The Pelicans are allowing 55.7 points per game in the paint since the break (26th). In the same time frame, Utah is scoring just 46.3 percent of its points from there (25th), but uses the three-ball for 35 percent of its points (eighth).
My Bet for New Orleans vs Utah
Pelicans +10.5
Don’t get me wrong, I like the Jazz to win this game, and probably comfortably. However, the Pelicans do match up fairly well and much like the Toronto Raptors, they’ve gotten used to playing games without their superstar on the floor.
The absence of Davis (or the potential absence of Davis) from the lineup will put the public in a position of inflating the spread to favor the Jazz. With that, I like New Orleans to cover as a double-digit dog, with or without AD, for the fifth time this season.
