Nuggets vs Timberwolves Picks & Odds Tonight: Minnesota Favored In Playoff Rematch

Betting odds from FanDuel favor the Minnesota Timberwolves to defeat the Denver Nuggets on Friday night in a rematch of the Western Conference semifinals, although Denver certainly has more momentum on its side at the moment.

Here's a look at our expert picks covering spread, moneyline, total, and player props as the Nuggets look to extend their winning streak to three games at the Target Center for this marquee meeting.

Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Odds

Preview: Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 9:30 p.m. ET

Odds as of November 1, 2024 at FanDuel

Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Expert Picks

Denver Nuggets ATS +4 (-110), Minnesota Timberwolves ML (-188)

The second round of the playoffs concluded in surprising fashion with Minnesota dethroning the 2023 champions in a competitive seven-game series, with the Timberwolves taking Game 7 by erasing a 20-point deficit. It was a peculiar series in the sense that the road team won the first four games and five in total with Minnesota prevailing in the finale at Ball Arena, and that provides some semblance of hope here that the Nuggets can replicate that success on Friday.

While neither was in convincing fashion, needing overtime on both occasions to seal the deal, Denver has strung together a pair of victories over the Toronto Raptors and Brooklyn Nets after opening the campaign with consecutive losses. The Timberwolves, meanwhile, just lost at home to the Dallas Mavericks by six points, leaving both the Nuggets and Minnesota with identical 2-2 records SU.

There were only four instances last season in which Denver was an underdog of four or more points, going 3-1 SU while successfully covering the spread all four times. One of those instances came during the playoffs on May 12 in Game 4 in a 115-107 win to even the series at 2-2. Even across four games during the regular season, the series was split right down the middle with each team winning once at home and once on the road, so as far as matchups go, this one is as even as it gets. 

The Nuggets' offense is actually far more prolific on the road than at home thus far, averaging 124.3 points per 100 possessions away compared to just 97.3 in the Mile High City. They should keep the score close on Friday for the spread, but Minnesota is rightfully favored at home and should be taken on the moneyline. Since this is so much of a coin flip, this logic at least covers you on both grounds.

UNDER 219.5 Points (-108)

Again, this game isn't making it easy for bettors to zone in on trends, because in the 11 times Denver and Minnesota took the floor against each other last season, their OVER/UNDER record was 5-6. Even in a short window this season, both teams have split their OVER/UNDER marks at 2-2 each.

Let's take the UNDER here since the Nuggets' offense only started clicking against bottom-tiered defenses, and the Timberwolves are anything but. 

Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Player Prop

Nikola Jokic OVER 27.5 Points (-104)

A Nikola Jokic scoring prop at -104 odds is music to my ears. The three-time Most Valuable Player currently ranks first in the Association in scoring at 31.3 points per game, and has toppled 27.5 points in three-straight games, two of which resulted in 40 or more points.

Even against Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert last season, Jokic managed to drop 34 or more points in three of the last four outings in the postseason, while also scoring 32 or more points in three of the four games during the regular season. 

Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Trends

*all betting trends courtesy of Outlier