Sitting pretty at third in the Western Conference, the Oklahoma City Thunder will look to win their sixth game in a row when they visit the Orlando Magic. The Thunder are 4.5 games back of the Warriors for the best record in the Western Conference and are 4-2 SU and ATS in their last six road games. The Magic, on the other hand, are still an afterthought in the East at 20-30 SU in 50 games this year and have dropped seven of the last 10 games in this matchup despite covering the spread in eight of them.
The Thunder opened as 5.5-point favorites with a total of 221.5.
- The Thunder are 2nd in the NBA in points per game in January.
- The Magic are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games.
- The OVER has hit in 8 of the Thunder’s last 10 games.
Thunder’s Scoring is the Best It’s Been Since KD
While no one will compare Paul George to Kevin Durant in terms of basketball talent, the Thunder’s swingman is playing on another level. George has put the team on his back during its five-game win streak and over the Thunder’s last seven games, he’s made 35 of 70 three-pointers. George’s hot streak has pushed OKC to 46.3 percent from three-point range during its winning streak and 42.7 percent over the last 10 games.
The defense was already a strong component to the Thunder’s approach to winning basketball games but if they’re scoring like this, there are only a select few teams that can take them down. OKC is second in the NBA in points scored per game in January, trailing only the Golden State Warriors.
I like the Thunder to wipe the floor with the Magic because of how well they’ve been shooting but also because they’re one of six teams in the NBA with a winning record on the road at 14-11 SU. The Magic are ranked 25th in defending the three-pointer this month and are in the bottom five in point differential.
Magic Have Been Keeping Games Close Despite Bad Record
It’s not uncommon for the Orlando Magic to be a home underdog these days. The Magic haven’t had an all-star caliber player since Dwight Howard was on the roster and each year, they’re somewhere in the top 10 in the NBA draft. Stockpiling “assets” hasn’t worked out too well for them in the standings as the Magic are staring down another losing season at 20-30 SU in 50 games.
That’s why they’ve been home dogs in 16 of their games at Amway Center and spread bettors are fully aware of how profitable they’ve been in front of the home fans. Since November 9, Orlando is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games at home while winning seven of those games outright, including victories over Boston, Utah and Houston.
I’m still not convinced they can take down the Thunder because the Magic are 3-10 SU in their last 13 games vs teams with winning records and the spread is so close that if the Magic are in it late, they will likely win the game. If bettors are bullish on Orlando, just take their moneyline and know that they’ve lost their last three games by a total of only 13 points.
The Thunder’s Scoring Has Led To a Lot of OVERs
The total opened at 222.5 and trends are pointing to an OVER. The OVER has hit in eight of the Thunder’s last 10 games with an average combined score of 247.8 points per game. Factoring in that the OVER has hit in six of the Magic’s last eight games, the OVER is worth a stab if you can’t decide on the spread.
My Pick Is…
To take the Thunder to win and cover the spread. I wanted to take Orlando to cover but the spread is so close that I think they win the game outright if they keep it within two possessions. OKC is playing on another level right now and I don’t think Orlando has anyone who can stop Paul George and Russell Westbrook. If you aren’t on board with the Thunder, take the Magic moneyline.
