Oklahoma City Thunder vs Philadelphia 76ers

The Oklahoma City Thunder have a historically elite defense this season, posting a defensive rating of 102.9 that far outpaces the rest of the league. The Thunder have seven of the top ten qualified players in the NBA in defensive rating, and that’s not including Chet Holmgren, who is currently injured and leads the league in that metric. It’s difficult to see a path to offensive success for the 76ers in this game, particularly with Joel Embiid sidelined with a foot injury.

Tyrese Maxey will be asked to shoulder a significant offensive burden, and he’s had a great year, ranking 9th in the NBA with 25.8 points per game. However, the Thunder have elite perimeter defenders, including Luguentz Dort, Alex Caruso, and Cason Wallace, to keep him in check. Paul George has had a disappointing first season in Philadelphia after signing a massive contract over the offseason. George is averaging just 16.8 points on 42.1% shooting - that would be his lowest points per game in an entire season since his second year with the Pacers in 2011. With George struggling to maintain efficiency this season, a matchup with the elite Thunder defense is problematic.

Offensively, the Thunder aren’t as dominant as they are defensively, but this looks like a great matchup for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to continue his MVP candidacy. SGA is one of the league’s premier scorers, averaging 31.4 points on stellar 52.2% shooting despite a steady diet of difficult contested jumpers. With Embiid and Andre Drummond out for Philadelphia, SGA should have a clear path to the rim with high-efficiency buckets in the paint.

The 76ers are severely outmatched in this contest, and while 11 points is a lot to lay on the road, the Thunder are the preferred bet. In recent games, the Sixers have lost by 10 points (Suns) and 8 points (Pelicans) to far inferior teams than the Thunder, and OKC has won three of its last four road games by 12+ points. Expect another blowout on Tuesday. 

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The Thunder have swarming defensive guards who will give Tyrese Maxey fits on Tuesday, and he’ll likely need to look to be a playmaker more often rather than a scorer.

Joel Embiid’s absence removes one of the best routes to Maxey getting assists, but it also means he’ll have the ball in his hands more often against a defense willing to concede catch-and-shoot jump shots. Maxey has cleared 5.5 assists in 14 of his last 20 games (70%). 

For more on this matchup, be sure to check out Odds Shark's expert picks by clicking here.