Returning home from a 27-point beatdown by the Timberwolves, the Sacramento Kings take the court and aim to take another victory vs the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight. The Kings have won the first two meetings against OKC this season by a combined 15 points but haven’t beat Oklahoma City three straight times in a season since the Thunder moved from Seattle in 2009. The Thunder have failed to cover in four of their last five games on the road and haven’t covered the spread in the last five games in this matchup.
The Thunder opened as 5-point favorites with a total of 235.
- The Kings are 9-3-1 ATS in 13 home games this season.
- The Thunder are ranked fifth in the NBA in points allowed per game (105.0).
- The UNDER has hit in 10 of the Thunder’s 14 road games this season.
Is This The Year that The Kings Break Their Playoff Drought?
To say it’s been a while since the Kings made the playoffs would be just trolling at this point. Sacramento has been balling out this season and at 16-14 SU in 30 games has put its best foot forward to break a streak that has been going since the 2006-07 season. The Kings are ranked fifth in the league in scoring (115.4) and point guard De’Aaron Fox is the catalyst to their rebuild as the second-year point guard is averaging 17.7 points and 7.3 assists while shooting 38 percent from deep.
Although they sport a record of 7-6 SU in 13 home games, they’ve been rewarding spread bettors when taking the court at Golden 1 Center. Sacramento is an impressive 9-3-1 ATS in those contests and has covered the spread in five of the last six games when hosting Oklahoma City.
I think the Kings may be the darling in the West right now but I can’t see them taking down the Thunder for the third straight game, especially since OKC has been playing better of late. If the Kings do win, though, it will be because they actually played some defense. Sacramento has given up over 130 points in its last two losses and is allowing 125.5 points per game over the last four.
Thunder’s Defense Is at a Championship Level
With OKC sitting a game and a half back of first in the Western Conference, if I had to pick a team to potentially dethrone the Warriors this season, it would be the Thunder or the Nuggets. OKC is 19-10 SU in 29 games and its defense has been the staple for its success this year as the team ranks fifth in points allowed per game (105.0) while leading the NBA in forced turnovers (17.7).
The Thunder’s offense also seems to be catching up as they’ve scored 110 or more points in eight of their last nine games and have gone 6-3 SU in those contests. Russell Westbrook’s scoring has taken a bit of a dip this month (16.8 points) but he’s still averaging a triple-double and his ability to work within the offense has paid dividends in the win column but for spread bettors, they’ve gone 3-6 ATS in those games so keep that in mind before placing your wagers.
When the Thunder hit the Road, UNDERs Tend to Follow
The total opened at 235 and based on trends, this game is shaping up to be a massive UNDER. The UNDER has hit in 10 of the Thunder’s 14 road games this season with an average combined score of 214.3 points per game. Considering the final combined score has only went OVER 235 points once in those 14 games, I expect the low scoring to continue.
My Pick Is…
To take the Thunder to cover the spread and the UNDER on separate bets. The total seems wayyy too high for how these teams play and I can’t see the Kings beating the Thunder three straight times in a season based on the matchups.
