After facing a gauntlet of the Clippers, Warriors and Bucks, the Portland Trail Blazers will look to get back on the winning track when they tip off vs the Orlando Magic. The Blazers dropped all three of those games and their record is now 12-8 SU in 20 games after a promising start. Portland is 7-3 SU and ATS in 10 home games this season and has beaten Orlando in the last four games in this matchup. The Magic, on the other hand, have lost three of their last four and may be without star Aaron Gordon in this tilt.
The Blazers opened as 7-point favorites with a total of 217.5.
- Portland is averaging 116 points per game at home this season.
- The Magic are 1-8 SU in their last nine games on the West Coast.
- The UNDER has hit in three of the last four games in this matchup.
What a Shocker: Blazers Play Better at Home
The Moda Center has always been a tough place to play dating back to when it used to be the Rose Garden and this season the Trail Blazers are taking advantage of home court. The Blazers are 7-3 SU and ATS in 10 home games this year and were 28-13 SU in 41 home games last season. Portland is averaging 116 points per game in Oregon (ranked ninth) with a +5.3-point differential.
Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum are doing their thing by averaging 47.6 points per game combined but it’s the complementary pieces like Evan Turner and Al-Farouq Aminu on the second unit that are helping them win ball games. Turner and Aminu are combining to average just under 20 points and if those two forwards are balling, the Blazers are tough to stop.
I’m likely going to back the Blazers on the spread because when they win games at home, their average win margin is 13.8 points per game. They’ve also gone 4-1-1 ATS in the last six games when facing Orlando.
Magic have lost the Hocus-Pocus on the Road
I’m not buying this mini-resurgence by Orlando this season as we’ve seen this movie before. The Magic started off hot a year ago at 8-4 SU in their first 12 games and showed glimmers of potential with all the top-five picks they’d been stockpiling. But they proceeded to lose their next nine games and finished the season 25-57 SU for the year.
The Magic have not been reliable on the road as evidenced by their 1-8 SU mark over their last nine games on the West Coast and the 4-5 SU road record this season seems hollow when you see that they’ve lost 16 of their last 21 road games dating back to last season. They only average 105 points per away game (ranked 25th) and allow teams to shoot 46 percent from the floor.
As you can tell, I’m likely fading the Magic in this one because they’re a little overrated and forward Aaron Gordon may not play due to a back injury. Even if he suits up, he’ll likely be limited and wouldn’t factor into my decision of wagering against them.
How to Bet the Total
The total opened at 217.5 and I’d lean to the UNDER in this game. The UNDER has hit in three of the last four games in this matchup with an average combined score of 208.2 points per game. Portland’s scoring has taken a dip this month down to 110.3 points per game while the Magic average 105 points in road games. It may be a razor-thin margin but I’d take the UNDER.
My Pick Is...
To take the Blazers to win and cover the spread. I’m fairly high on the Blazers to make the playoffs again this season and I think with the way they’ve performed at home this season (7-3 ATS), they are the solid play when facing a team like the Magic.
