The Milwaukee Bucks are big and they are 3-0 to open the 2018-19 NBA season. Milwaukee is also the early-season favorite to win the NBA’s Central Division and a top seed in the Eastern Conference. The Bucks are favored by 6 tonight at home to the 76ers, who come to Milwaukee on the heels of a tough loss in Detroit last night.
- The 76ers are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five games on the road (avg. losing margin: 8.4).
- The total has gone OVER in 23 of the Bucks’ last 27 games (avg. combined score: 220.81).
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia’s last 5 games.
Rebounding is Key to Bucks’ Success
Milwaukee leads the Eastern Conference in both defensive rebounding and total rebounds through the first couple of weeks of the season. With two players over seven feet tall, two at 6-11 and two more at 6-10 on the roster, it’s not a surprise that the Bucks are winning the battle of the boards.
What might be a little surprising is the fact that they’re also shooting 40 percent from beyond the arc. A dual-threat offense that’s 47.8 percent from the floor overall makes Milwaukee a tough team to defend and a reason that they’re ninth in the league at 118 points per game.
Evidence for Fading the Sixers
It’s still early, so it’s hard to look too much into statistics and trends, but it’s all we have to go on, so let’s take a closer look. Philly is 1-3 ATS through its first four games, 0-1 as an underdog and 0-2 ATS on the road.
Interestingly, the last game that the Sixers played as an underdog of 6 points or more was January 29 in Milwaukee in a game the Bucks won 107-95, an eight-point loss. In fact, the Sixers are 6-11 ATS in their last 17 games against the Bucks and 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games at Milwaukee.
My Pick for Tonight
I’m going to take my own advice and fade Philly and take the Bucks on the spread tonight. Philadephia had a frustrating loss to Detroit last night and it’s a pretty quick turnaround against one of the league’s top teams.
I’m going to avoid a bet on the total in this game as it’s set fairly high at 224.5 and with two teams that rebound well, there should be a lot of traffic under the buckets, making easy putbacks tougher to come by.
