Host Bucks Favored to Even NBA Finals With Game 4 Win

Milwaukee (59-33 SU, 43-49 ATS) got back into the NBA Finals on Sunday with a 20-point victory, the third time in as many games that the home team has won by double digits. The Bucks opened as 4-point favorites in Game 4, but Phoenix (65-26, 55-34-2) has covered 20 of its last 27 following a straight-up loss.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

The Sportsbook line of Bucks -4 marked the smallest point spread we’ve seen in this series, while the total remained virtually the same as we’ve seen in each of the last two games. The first three games of the Finals have been decided by double digits but totals have been extremely tight, landing within five points in all three contests.

Phoenix News & Notes

It was the Suns’ turn to complain about one-sided whistles after Milwaukee enjoyed a 26-16 advantage in free-throw attempts on Sunday. Not only did Giannis Antetokounmpo attempt more free throws than the entire Phoenix team, but center Deandre Ayton was called for five fouls that limited him to just 24 minutes of action.

As much as the Suns missed Ayton’s offensive contributions (he scored 12 points in the first quarter alone), his foul trouble may have hurt them more on the defensive end. Milwaukee scored 54 points in the paint for the second straight time in the series as Antetokounmpo had his way with Torrey Craig and Frank Kaminsky, who are playing extra minutes due to the ACL injury big man Dario Saric suffered in the series opener.

Although Phoenix has covered 20 of its last 27 games following a SU loss and has had an extra day to prepare for Game 4, Suns fans may also be a bit worried about the play of their two star guards coming into tonight’s contest.

Devin Booker missed 11 of his 14 field-goal attempts in Game 3 and sat out the entire fourth quarter, while Chris Paul has committed 10 turnovers the last two games after giving the ball away 10 times in his previous five games combined.

Milwaukee News & Notes

How good has Antetokounmpo been in this series? Well, after the Greek Freak became the first player since LeBron James to score at least 40 points in consecutive NBA Finals games, speculation is growing that he might be named Finals MVP even if the Bucks don’t win the series. That hasn’t happened since Jerry West won MVP in the 1969 Finals, the first year that the award was presented.

Antetokounmpo, who has missed just two of his 25 shots from within six feet of the basket, finally got some help from his teammates on Sunday. Jrue Holiday shook off a pair of tough outings in Phoenix to score 21 points and record nine assists, and Giannis was responsible for just two of the Bucks’ final 16 points in the first half.

Huge runs were key for Milwaukee in Game 3 as the Bucks rode the support from the home crowd that has helped them go 16-1 SU in their last 17 at Fiserv Forum. The Bucks erased a second-quarter deficit with a 30-9 run that allowed them to go into halftime with a 15-point advantage, and then blew the game open with a 24-6 surge to close out the third quarter.

Betting Pick: Suns +4.5

We’re overdue for a competitive game in this series and with Phoenix coming off a blowout defeat, it looks like the ideal time to get one.