Returning from a three-game road trip that only led to L’s, the Houston Rockets will try to break out of their misery when they host the Portland Trail Blazers tonight. The Rockets have been the biggest disappointment in the NBA this season with a step-back that even James Harden would be envious of. They sit 14th in the Western Conference but have won four of the last five games in this matchup and five of their last six at the Toyota Center.
The Rockets opened as 6.5-point favorites with a total of 219.5.
- The Blazers are 2-6 SU in their last eight games on the road.
- The Rockets are ranked 24th in three-point percentage.
- The OVER has hit in 7 of the Rockets’ 10 home games this season.
Blazers vs Rockets Game Center
Rockets Need a Surgeon for Their Abysmal Shooting
To say the start of the 2018-19 NBA season has been a disappointment for the Rockets would be a massive understatement. After winning over 60 games and being minutes away from dispatching the Warriors in the Western Conference final last year, the construction of this team currently seems flawed. Turns out the departure of forwards Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute had ripple effects through the entire roster and it’s showing up on the offensive side of the ball.
The Rockets, as usual, are still leading the NBA in three-point attempts, which usually is a winning formula in today’s game, but you still have to hit those shots. Houston is averaging 33.7 percent from deep, which ranks 24th in the league, while ranking 22nd in field-goal percentage and 25th in points in the paint. Those are numbers that don’t add up to success in Mike D’Antoni’s three-or-layup system he implemented when he arrived in H-Town four seasons ago.
Another glaring issue for the Rockets is they don’t get to the free-throw line like they used to, which is odd when you have the king of drawing fouls in James Harden. The Rockets have routinely been ranked first or in the top three in free-throw attempts since his arrival in Houston back in 2012-13, but this season they rank 17th.
I don’t feel comfortable backing the Rockets on the spread based on how they’ve played lately and the stats listed above. They’re 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite, 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall and 1-4-1 ATS in the last six games in this matchup. Until we start to see some consistency, I’m going to continue to fade Houston.
Blazers Are Struggling Away from Oregon
At 0-5 ATS in their last five away games and 4-8 ATS in 12 road games this season, it’s safe to say that asking for the Blazers to cover the spread on the road is a tall order. They were able to break an eight-game ATS losing streak at home vs the Suns and Timberwolves but those are layups compared to the gauntlet of the rest of the Western Conference.
Points have always been easy to come by for Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum (combining for 48.4 points per game) but outside of this stellar backcourt, scoring is nearly non-existent. Only one other player on the roster averages double-digit points (Jusuf Nurkic) and his inability to hit a three-pointer can make him a liability against a team like the Rockets that will go small to counteract his presence.
I’m likely avoiding the spread or moneyline for the Blazers due to their poor defense (allowing opponents to shoot 37 percent from deep) and because they’re 1-5 SU and ATS in six road games vs Western Conference opponents and 2-6 SU in their last eight away games.
How You Should Bet the Total
The total opened at 219.5 (since moved to 220) and I’ll be taking the OVER in this matchup as the OVER has hit in five of the Blazers’ last six games on the road, which has led to an average combined score of 231.7. Portland allows far too many good looks from deep and the OVER has hit in seven of the Rockets’ 10 home games this season with an average combined score of 223.4.
My Pick Is…
To take the OVER 220. Neither of these defenses strikes fear into any NBA team this season and both teams rely heavily on threes. In the Rockets’ 10 home games this season, the total has only gone below 220 in three of those games so I expect a shootout at the Toyota Center.
